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Showing posts from January, 2009

The New Paradigm For Ireland?

Cowen's call to arms in time of need... The nation is demanding an Obama-esque state of the nation address from the Taoiseach. Here, Frank McNally offers his take on what Brian Cowen might say... ‘FRIENDS, CITIZENS, COUNTRYMEN: lend me your ears! And not just your ears. If there’s anything else you can lend me, all pledges would be gratefully accepted. We have people ready to take your call now at the number showing on screen. But I’ll come back to that later. Sixty-five years ago, in the midst of another national emergency, Éamon de Valera addressed the people, much as I am doing this evening, and chose the occasion to outline his vision of the ideal Ireland. He said the country of which he dreamed was one whose people would be satisfied with frugal comforts, and who devoted their leisure time to things of the spirit. It was a land in which material wealth would be valued only as the basis for right living; a land whose countryside was bright with cosy homesteads; whose fields wer

Bigger The Bubble - Bigger The Bust...

Best to ignore the cheerleaders for the property sector... HAPPY new year? Not really. The banks are at death’s door. Unemployment is rocketing. Cuts much more severe than those proposed in the recent budget are inevitable. The recession is deepening, with fears that Ireland is on the verge of a so-called ‘lost decade’ growing increasingly realistic. We’re up the creek. Auctioneers and developers, however, have a different vision for 2009, one where ever more affordable homes will be snapped up by a willing populace. After all, construction firms cannot cut prices further as they are “down to their bottom line” on prices, according to one builder recently. Indeed, those who are “stupidly waiting” for prices to fall further should cop themselves on and realise that prices are bottoming. This stupidity has been disappointing developers for some time now. In August, property tycoon Derek Quinlan noted that first-time buyers must be given the confidence to buy as “negative media comm

Chasing The Bubble & Paying The Price...

‘Wrong-Headed’ RBS, Danske, HBOS Lose in Irish Bubble... Jan. 28 (Bloomberg) -- It’s not just the Irish who are being stung by the collapse of the property market in what was once Western Europe’s most dynamic economy. Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, which bought Dublin-based First Active in 2004 in what was the largest overseas takeover of an Irish bank, said on Jan. 26 it will cut 750 jobs. Danske Bank A/S said provisions for impaired Irish loans rose by more than 10 times in the third quarter. “They were chasing the bubble, and now they are paying the price for it,” said Alex Potter, an analyst at Collins Stewart in London. “Their timing was absolutely wrong-headed.” Ireland’s economy is shrinking at the fastest pace in the euro area as the real estate market dives. The demise of the “Celtic Tiger” forced the government to seize control of Anglo Irish Bank Corp., which lends mainly to property developers, and to promise Allied Irish Banks Plc and Bank of Ireland Plc, the two bigg

Irish Property Crisis Slump To Crash...

Property crisis has moved from slump to crash... ...price guide reveals desperate state of the housing market and its negative effect on the value of homes all across Ireland: First, we need to get our terminology right. To date, Ireland’s property crisis has been described as a slowdown, a downturn and a slump. But today the Sunday Times Property Price Guide 2009 shows that we’re in the grip of nothing less than a full-blown crash — and, by world standards, a severe one at that. In recent months, property agents have claimed that successive price surveys have not come close to reflecting the grim reality they have been experiencing on the ground. Now, with the help of our guide, you can realistically assess for the first time how the crash has affected the value of your home. This survey is more accurate than any other; to put it simply, no rival survey is as specific as the Sunday Times Property Price Guide. Here we examine the performance of more than 20 types of property in more th

House Tells Story Of Irish Property Boom...

Trophy seaside home tells story of the boom... IF A SINGLE house could tell the story of the property boom then it might be Sorrento Villa on Vico Road in Dalkey, Co Dublin. The Victorian detached house, facing the sea, slumbered up on the hill for decades, its interior divided into two spacious units that would have been described as flats rather than apartments. The house dates from the 1860s when it was built by a provost of Trinity College as a summer villa: and he chose one of the finest sites on the hill with a sunny east-to-south exposure. Two years ago when property prices reached fever pitch, it came on the market with an Advised Minimum Value (AMV) of €4.5 million. However, after intense bidding at auction it sold for €5.6 million. Stamp duty at 9 per cent added an additional €500,000. The new owners went on to spend many thousands more on redecorating the rooms and making changes to the layout, converting it to a five-bedroom house. They also drew up plans to install an expe

Irish New House Prices Cut 40% In 2009...

Developers are offering substantially lower prices in the hope of shifting remaining units at schemes built in the last two to three years... PRICE CUTS of up to 40 per cent are being offered by builders in an attempt to get the stalled new homes market moving again and to clear unsold units. While price reductions are bringing many new homes back to pre-2006 prices and interest rate cuts have gone a long way towards improving affordability, lack of finance and negative sentiment remain as the big hurdles for potential buyers. A raft of new homes developers are hoping to shift remaining units at developments built in the last two to three years and are pitching prices at substantially less than the original asking prices. For many builders it is not a case of making a profit any more, it’s simply making some sales to cover the cost of building and paying off some of the debt on sites. Price cuts will be most prominent in large schemes on the edge of the city where developers have stru

No Brainer – Irish Not Buying Affordable Housing Scheme...

Dublin council to reduce affordable house prices... DUBLIN CITY Council is to discount its total stock of affordable homes to get rid of a backlog of 300 unsold houses that are costing the council upwards of €300,000 a month in bridging loans and fees. The council is to offer further discounts of about 25 per cent on houses it had already discounted by up to 35 per cent of the original market price to compete with developers’ discounts. Developers must provide 20 per cent of any new housing estate or complex for social and affordable housing. A discounted price for the affordable units is agreed on the market price. The discount in Dublin is generally in the region of 30 – 35 per cent. The council gives the developer names of people who are eligible to buy an affordable house. If two affordable house buyers reject the house or apartment, the council is obliged to buy it from the developer at the agreed discounted price. In a rising market, this system worked well. However, now that hou

Last Rites For Celtic Tiger...

European journalists deliver the last rites to Celtic Tiger... EUROPEAN DIARY : European media outlets have been scathing in their criticism of a ‘Wild West’ financial culture ... THE CRISIS gripping the Irish economy is clearly the big news at home this week. But it is also hard to avoid the topic in Brussels, where journalists and diplomats are busy reading the last rites to the Celtic Tiger and rethinking their past praise for the Irish economic miracle. In the European Commission press room, colleagues from other EU states tend to broach the subject in one of two ways. Over a cup of coffee some ask concerned questions about what went wrong, who is to blame and what impact it will have on a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Others invoke gallows humour, telling the in-joke: “What’s the difference between Iceland and Ireland? Answer: One letter and about six months.” The BBC’s daily current affairs programme Europe Today repeated this – by now hackneyed – joke on air on Friday

Irish Top 10 Property Blackspots - Biggest Price Drops In Ireland...

Well-heeled south Dublin suburbs, commuter enclaves and student cities have all been devastated by the property price slump. But some have been hit worse than others and the pace of the fall in prices is picking up in some counties and cities. Nick Webb reveals where prices are falling fastest ... 1. Galway City 12.2 per cent drop at end of 2008 HOUSE prices in Galway City are falling faster than anywhere else in the Republic, according to new research. In the final quarter of 2008, house prices fell by a staggering 12.2 per cent. That means that between October to Christmas, the average house price in Galway shed €40,000, falling to just over €303,000 or by close to €450 per day. Galway city house prices have fallen by 21.1 per cent since the height of the property madness in mid-2006, according to Daft findings. The price haemorrhage was slower in Galway county, although it was still the seventh fastest falling market in the last quarter, with prices tumbling 7.2 per cent. Last week&

Ireland's Muppet Show - Nob Nation & The Drink's Cabinet...

RTE's biting satire ruffles feathers of Cowen circle ...Supporters unhappy at Cabinet portrayal as boozing buffoons: RTE has become embroiled in a potential controversy, reminiscent of the infamous Scrap Saturday furore, following the broadcast last week of a series of biting satirical sketches which have already ruffled feathers in political circles. Nob Nation, a topical comedy series broadcast each day on the Gerry Ryan Show on 2FM, last week portrayed some members of the Cabinet, including Taoiseach Brian Cowen, as hard-drinking buffoons, and made several joking references to "The Drinks Cabinet" . A flood of complaints was subsequently fielded by the programme, primarily in relation to Nob Nation's portrayal of Mr Cowen, but also several other members of Cabinet, including the Finance Minister Brian Lenihan. Mr Cowen was on government business in Japan last week and, therefore, did not hear the series. But supporters in Co Offaly are understood to have been upset

2009 - In China It's Year Of The Ox, In Ireland it's Year Of The Renter...

With an oversupply of properties and tumbling prices, renting seems the way to go... IN THE Chinese calendar, 2009 is the year of the ox, but in Ireland it looks set to be the year of the renter. Economists are predicting that rents will drop by at least 10 per cent in the year ahead, compounding similar falls in 2008. Tenants are waking up to the fact that it’s a buyers’ market and negotiating lower rents and better conditions (see panel). In many cases, they are renting properties that they could never afford to buy. Large, luxurious homes are coming on to the rental market for the first time. Meanwhile, new standards are coming into force next month which will improve the quality of existing rental accommodation. Forget about grotty bedsits, coin-operated electricity meters and rent hikes – tenant power is in the ascendant. The downward pressure on rents has been caused primarily by a glut of properties flooding the market. Developers, buy-to-let investors and those trading up who f

www.daft.ie - Latest Report - Daft Property Ireland - January 2009...

Ireland's Property Market: A Fallen Star? Ronan Lyons, Daft's in-house economist, commenting on the latest Daft research on the Irish property market... When we look back at 2008 in a few years' time, I think it's fair to say we will regard it as the annus horribilis for Ireland's property market. In late 2006, we issued a report which was the first to spot a slowdown in the property market. At the time, it was our view - unpopular though it was - that rising interest rates and high levels of supply would lead to a levelling off in house prices. This turns out to only have been the start of the story. Bursting onto the world stage at the end of the 1990s, Ireland was heralded as an economic phenomenon and rapidly became a global superstar and poster-child for economic development. But recently it looks like it's all just falling apart. Nowhere is this more evident than in Ireland's housing market - until recently the engine of Ireland's economic growth.

Post Property Bubble Ireland - Economic Crisis 2009

Ireland plans drastic cuts to prevent debt crisis... Ireland is to demand pay cuts for civil servants and public employees to prevent the budget deficit soaring to 12pc of gross domestic product by next year – becoming the first country in the eurozone to resort to 1930s-style wage deflation to claw back competitiveness. "We will take whatever decisions are necessary," said premier Brian Cowen. The Taoiseach yesterday denied reports that he invoked the spectre of the International Monetary Fund to terrify the trade unions into submission. But the threat – uttered or not – has been picked up nevertheless by labour leaders. "The IMF's normal prescription in such situations involves mass dismissals and pay cuts, along with cuts in pensions," said Dan Murphy, head of the public service union, who accepts the need for draconian retrenchment. The budget deficit will soar to 9.6pc of GDP this year as property tax revenues collapse. It is so far above the EU's Maast

It's Irish Housing Market Demolition Time As Prices To Fall 80%...

Warning that house prices may fall by 80%... HOUSING MARKET: IRELAND WILL see more demolition than construction of houses over the next decade, as the economy struggles to recover from the collapse of the housing market and the emergence of “zombie” banks , UCD economist Morgan Kelly told the conference. In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms. “Construction, but not demolition, of residential and commercial property will fall to zero for the foreseeable future,” he said. Low levels of education among those employed in construction – where worker numbers peaked at about 280,000 – meant retraining would not be straightforward. Recovery will be slow: “It has taken us 10 years to get into this situation – it will in all likelihood take us 10 years to get out of it.” Mr Kelly said he had been hailed as being extremely prescient as a result of his warnings in relation t

Spectre Of Gloom Looms In Ireland As Recession Hits...

Spectre of gloom looms for those who keep their jobs as well as those laid off... GOING, GOING gone. Once these three words were the oft-repeated mantra of Ireland's busy auctioneers; now they form a gloomy synopsis of the state of the Irish jobs market. With no homes going under the hammer, the axe fell on jobs in the construction sector over the course of 2008. A decisive coinciding blow from the global economic crisis saw the reverberations spread through all sectors of the economy. Jobs are now being lost at such a fast rate that an Opposition leader (Labour Party's Eamon Gilmore) can call the soaring unemployment rate a "national crisis" and it doesn't sound like political hyperbole. Having started the year below 5 per cent, the estimated unemployment rate in November was 7.8 per cent. Economists now forecast that the rate will jump to double digits by the end of 2009. Almost 100,000 people joined the Live Register of unemployment benefit claimants in the fir

Mangy Celtic Tigers Face 2009...

Ireland: Testing Times... How do we cope with recession? Valerie Shanley hears from leading experts and thinkers... In with the old, out with the new. But if we started 2008 as slightly mangy Celtic Tigers, who are we now as we venture a toe into 2009? The collapse in our economy has left an entire section of society feeling much poorer – especially those with big houses and share portfolios in Irish banks. Gone are the days when estate agents could tell you that the first thing new owners of a house should do on moving in was to rip out the designer kitchen the previous owners had only recently installed and replace it with another. Because gone are many of those estate agents. If the masters of no universe are having to re-evaluate the way they look at themselves, what about the rest of us? Even though most people were observers, as opposed to participants, in the ostentatious wealth of 'the boom', there was a positive, knock-on effect in confidence generally. Looking around,