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Showing posts with the label Japan

This Wretched Isle...

"For the love of God, and his blessed disciple St Patrick, displace me from this wretched isle"... Mbwana minister! All hail from the Emerald Isle, on this, its patron saint's feast day! It is my 10th year here! Any chance of granting me the posting that I sought after my very first week? To somewhere civilised, like North Korea, or Burma, or dear old Liberia? I liked Liberia. Yes, they sometimes kill children there, but that is in war: the highest men in the land raped children at a time of peace in this country, and got away with it. Big men, Mbwana. Important men, with purple hats, and their crimes were covered up by other men with purple hats. The health ministry here is pioneering new long thin hospital wards called "corridors". There is no money for the patients, because it is all being spent on the staff. Thousands of people are X-rayed here, and then no one bothers to read the X-rays, ho ho ho. In a county called Kerry, they are building a new hospital i...

Time To Pay For Excesses Of Past...

We will have to pay for excesses of the past... RECENT economic reports have a hint of desperation about them as they struggle to suggest the battered economy will revive in two years time. The bit between 2009 and 2010 is being glossed over, as the economy is expected to plunge to its worst recession ever in modern history . If it’s true, the 9-10% fall in output this year is from a high base and even if growth reverts back to 2005 levels then that would be no bad thing. That was the year before we built a record 96,000 houses and employment doubled towards 2 million over a 10-year period. That’s all positive, but the reality check still has to kick in. One report from West Cork suggests house prices in some areas are in desperate trouble. One source has reported that 10 houses built in 2007, achieved prices of €400,000, some bought with €390,000 mortgages. But as the market tanked, unsold houses were bought for €180,000, leaving many in negative equity territory. It is also a fact th...

Exposing The Lie Of The Land...

Take a long look at the chart below. Digest it. Maybe look again if you have to. This happened in the most sophisticated economy in the world. This is what happened to the price of development land in Japan. Prices roared upwards and then collapsed, ending up below where they started at the beginning at the boom. This is likely to happen here; development land is likely to settle back to 1996 prices. We haven’t seen the half of it yet . When we hear some property lads talking about green shoots, this chart should be enough to tell them to snap out of it. But we can’t seem to snap out of it. We are still caught in the trap. We seem to believe that the price of houses and land will miraculously rise again some time soon. This will not happen. It can’t and shouldn’t. In fact, houses prices are likely to fall another 50 per cent from here before we see anything like the bottom. International comparisons bear out these forecasts. Until now, many Irish people have clung to the myth of what ...