House prices could fall 13.4% this year in bank test scenario... HOUSE PRICES could fall by a further 13.4 per cent this year and 14.4 per cent next year before recovering in 2013 under a scenario considered by the Central Bank to stress test the banks. This would represent a 55 per cent decline in house prices from the peak of the market in 2007. But under a worst-case scenario, house prices may fall by 17.4 per cent this year and 18.8 per cent next year, which would be a decline of 60 per cent from the peak. The Central Bank, which published details of the scenarios yesterday, is testing the lenders to see how much of the €35 billion set aside in the EU-IMF bailout fund for the banks will be needed. Minister for Finance Michael Noonan acknowledged yesterday that more than €10 billion may be required, but said he had “no idea at this stage” how much more was needed. He was speaking after he and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Brendan Howlin met senior officials
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