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Showing posts with the label economic crisis

Bucket Of Cold Water...

EU Commission throws cold water on hopes worst of budget crisis over... THE EU Commission yesterday took on the role of the man who blew out the light at the end of the tunnel. Tuesday was a good day in terms of the public finances. The Government, through the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), managed to borrow €1bn at the lowest interest rates since December 2008, when compared with equivalent German rates. The head of the NTMA suggested the gap between Irish and German interest rates on government debt could be less than 1pc by the end of the year. Any sane person not still living in bubble land would regard that as an eminently reasonable "spread", given the differences between the two economies. But the commission threw a large bucket of cold water on any flickering hopes that the worst of the budget crisis was over. In its formal report on the public finances of 14 EU states, it warned that the tough Irish budgetary plans, over which so much anger and anguish h

This Wretched Isle...

"For the love of God, and his blessed disciple St Patrick, displace me from this wretched isle"... Mbwana minister! All hail from the Emerald Isle, on this, its patron saint's feast day! It is my 10th year here! Any chance of granting me the posting that I sought after my very first week? To somewhere civilised, like North Korea, or Burma, or dear old Liberia? I liked Liberia. Yes, they sometimes kill children there, but that is in war: the highest men in the land raped children at a time of peace in this country, and got away with it. Big men, Mbwana. Important men, with purple hats, and their crimes were covered up by other men with purple hats. The health ministry here is pioneering new long thin hospital wards called "corridors". There is no money for the patients, because it is all being spent on the staff. Thousands of people are X-rayed here, and then no one bothers to read the X-rays, ho ho ho. In a county called Kerry, they are building a new hospital i

Artists & Entrepreneurs Are The Key...

Artists and entrepreneurs are the key to our recovery... On St Patrick's Day two years ago, while nudging my way up a crammed Fifth Avenue, the idea of the Farmleigh Global Irish Forum came to me. I'd thought about it before and I had seen how other countries cultivated relationships with their global tribes -- particularly the Jewish tribe and Israel -- but it was only after seeing the unique outpouring of Irish America on March 17 that I knew we should do this. We should tap into the power of the tribe and see where it takes us. Like many initiatives, the real power of something like Farmleigh can never be dictated in advance. There is an element of chaos in putting people together who don't know each other and are bonded by something as fluid as having an "interest" in Ireland and allowing the conversations and ideas to flow. But Ireland has never been short of ideas, if anything we have loads of ideas and not enough people who can execute them. The hardest par

Crisis To Redefine...

This time of crisis affords us great opportunity to redefine ourselves... The vision of our leaders is bankrupt. Now is the time to change our political culture IN TIMES of crisis, more than any other time, we need our politicians to provide leadership and clarity so we can make some sense of what we should be doing as citizens. In our current malaise we are still waiting for them and our public and corporate leaders to empower us with ideas so that we may reimagine our new Republic. It is a time of trauma and also of great opportunity and the need to correct this for the next generation should be a priority. What has been evident is that our artists, writers, thinkers, philosophers and (some) economists have been suggesting alternatives and a way of thinking afresh. I’m not suggesting that these new ideas will make us financially solvent again but in the absence of a dynamic political leadership, it is as good a place to start as any. It will, at the very least, replenish our idealism

Recession Damage Is Permanent...

Recession damage to Ireland is permanent, says OECD... THE global economic crisis has left deep scars that will take years to heal, but the Government must start now to plan for economic growth, said a new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). Highlighting the scale and depth of the recession, the report estimates a permanent loss of 3pc in output (GDP) on average across the 30 countries of the OECD. Unemployment will persist at higher levels than before the crisis. The report said Ireland has experienced a severe set-back in living standards that is "likely to have permanent effects". But it noted that, despite this, Ireland's per-capita income is now close to the average of the upper half of the 30 OECD countries. Structure However, the structure of the Irish economy means real income is 15pc less than output -- the second largest such gap in the OECD. In its review of Ireland's economic policies, the Paris-based thinktank sa

How Greek Tragedy Could Cripple Us...

Ireland’s share of an EU sponsored bailout of Greece would be between €200 million and €400 million, according to an exercise carried out for a European think tank. Open Europe, a broadly Eurosceptic think tank based in London, has estimated what each EU country would be required to pay if Greece was unable to refinance its debts, of which €20 billion to €25 billion will mature in the coming two months. Under a series of possible systems, it estimated that Ireland’s share of the bill would be between €227 million and €406 million. The broad range was accounted for by uncertainty of the size of the bailout and the system used for calculating the contribution. Open Europe said that meeting the cost of the bailout could be either spread among all members of the European Union or confined to those who used the euro as a currency. Ireland’s largest exposure - of about €400 million - would arise if only eurozone countries were required to pay. Under the system, Germany could be required to p

Times Are Tough...

"Citizens at the frontline are way down the list: the priority remains sorting out the banks to the best satisfaction of the banks"... When times are tough, choices must be made, priorities laid out. Last week, a film screened at the Jameson Dublin International Film Festival showed what happens when such priorities pay scant attention to lives lived at the frontline of recession. Meeting Room is a documentary charting the rise and fall of the Concerned Parents Against Drugs (CPAD) movement. CPAD was formed in 1982 to tackle the problem of drugs in inner city Dublin, where dealing and injecting were as common as little boys kicking football on the street. CPAD began with a meeting in Hardwicke Street, attended by, among others, Jesuit priest Jim Smyth. Pretty soon a plan of action was devised. Dealers would be asked to attend meetings of residents where they would be told to desist or leave the area immediately. If the dealers didn't show, the assembled marched on the off

Nanny State...

Nanny state's pension plan is bitter pill for most of us... NANNY Hanafin, assisted by the two Bossy Brians, was in full swing yesterday. Work for longer, get less tax relief and, by the way, if you are not in a pension we are going to sign you up for one whether you like it or not. Yes, the 'Nanny State' knows what is good for us and was not shy about telling us yesterday. Taoiseach Brian Cowen, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and Minister for Social and Family Affairs Mary Hanafin, have decided many of us have been naughty, not nice. So they have prescribed a full dose of pension punishment for all. Naughty workers who failed to take out a pension when the boom was in full flow will now be automatically signed up for one. This measure will not impact on those who are already in an occupational pension scheme and those in the public sector. All workers under the age of 62 will have to work for longer. Those under the age of 49 will end up having to wait until they are 68 be

Mortgage Lending Plummets...

Mortgage lending at lowest level since records began... MORTGAGE lending plunged last year to the lowest level since records began in 2005, as borrowing by investors and those seeking to trade up plummeted. Just €8.08bn of mortgage loans were issued in 2009, a 65pc drop on the previous year, the Irish Banking Federation said yesterday. The number of loans made fell 58.5pc to 45,818. “The data illustrate how difficult 2009 was for the mortgage market,” Irish Banking Federation boss Pat Farrell said. “The general economic situation, consumer confidence, the unsold housing stock and house-price movements will be among the factors to influence market activity in 2010.” Despite the plunge, first-time buyers and people moving house still only accounted for two-thirds of mortgage lending in the final quarter of 2009. Investors and those seeking socalled top-ups or remortgages accounted for the remainder. The market remains so moribund that there are more people borrowing money to “top up” the

Ireland Is Threat To Euro...

Ireland poses real threat to future of the euro, says top think-tank... Ireland has been identified as one of a small number of countries that poses "a real risk" to the future of the euro, according to reports in a Sunday newspaper. The report cites research from influential German think-tank CESifo, which warned of "very serious" slowdown in the Irish economy three years ago. The new research reportedly lists Ireland and Greece as two countries where international money markets see a significant risk of a sovereign default or an exit from the single currency. This perceived risk is reflecting in the markets for Irish and Greek debt, CESifo says, even though leaving the eurozone is not on the political agenda. Ireland, along with Finland, also comes in for a mention in CESifo's list of countries for which eurozone membership is "not optimal", due to our heavy reliance on trading with non-eurozone countries. Stable Against the backdrop of last week'

Ireland in Greek-style Crisis...

Green minister fears Greek-style crisis if banks don't get houses in order 'fast'... Ireland could be plunged into a Greek-style crisis unless the banks get their house in order "quickly''. That's the stark warning issued by the Communications, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Eamon Ryan yesterday. "The final bill for everything, that is all the madness in mortgages, the developers and general finance could be as high as €34bn," he warned. "We have done a job in projecting the Government's ability to manage its own finances. Now we have to convince the outside world that the banks have the capacity to manage their own finances," he said. Mr Ryan also noted that within Government, the view was "the sooner we do it the better''. Referring to the improved image of Ireland in the international community, he said of the banking crisis: "We have a limited window of opportunity to resolve this now. If we miss this opp

All Fools...

David McWilliams: We're all fools if we think recovery plan is patriotic... It's been nearly 18 months since the Government announced its bank guarantee. Anglo Irish Bank was nationalised over a year ago and it is coming up to a year since the Government first mooted the NAMA plan. Yet nothing has actually been done since then. Not a single loan has been transferred to NAMA. There has been lots of talk, lots of bluster and point scoring, but still credit in the economy contracts, house prices continue their slow strangling decline and, most significantly, the rest of the world has moved on. Why the delay? One interpretation is that our government doesn't understand that speed is crucial. If we compare our stagnation with other countries that have been faced with national bankruptcy, we compare dreadfully. Look at what the Swedes achieved in their crisis of 1993 when their property market collapsed along with their banks. In the four months between November 1993 and February

Irish Most Pessimistic In EU...

Irish among most pessimistic in EU about economy - survey... IRISH PEOPLE are among the most pessimistic in Europe about the economic and employment situation in their country and most people expect the situation to be worse in 12 months’ time, new EU research suggests. Although the research also suggests that the Irish are among the most satisfied Europeans with the area they live in, contentment with the public administration is very low and the cost of living is a major source of unhappiness. In a report drawn up amid signs that the world’s worst recession since the 1930s may be bottoming out, the European Commission warns that the social consequences of the downturn may take months or even years to manifest themselves fully. Irish attitudes to the situation were gauged in a survey of 1,007 people in May and June last year, following months of bad economic news. Some 90 per cent of Irish respondents described the situation as bad, one of seven countries in which nine out of 10 peopl

The Worst Is Yet To Come...

Most do not believe worst is over for economy... A majority of voters do not believe Brian Lenihan’s claim that the worst is over for the economy but they strongly back his decision to remain in office as he battles with cancer, according to the latest Irish Times /Ipsos, MRBI poll. Asked if they accept the Minister for Finance’s view that the worst is over or if they believe that the worst is yet to come, 61 per cent of voters said the worst is yet to come while 31 per cent believe it is over and 8 per cent have no opinion. In party terms, only Fianna Fáil voters believe the worst is over with the supporters of all other parties saying it is yet to come. Younger voters are more inclined to the view that the worst is over while the over-65s are the most pessimistic. Asked if Mr Lenihan is right to remain in office as he battles with cancer, 70 per cent of voters say he is, while 23 per cent say he is not and just 7 per cent have no opinion. The strongest support for Mr Lenihan remainin

Where Do We Go From Here?

IRELAND TODAY: IT’S JUST over a year since Wall Street and its Irish cheerleaders chanted “We are where we are” while Main Street reeled. Since then, every wrong-headed, populist Government economic policy, every catastrophic failure of the Financial Regulator, every rampantly greedy, short-termist instinct of the financial institutions and builders/developers has been exposed... A year ago, commentators were predicting something akin to the end of capitalism as we know it. Citizens were demanding humility, apologies, accountability, a purpose of amendment, radical reform, fewer tax breaks, an end to the bonus culture and a fairer share-out of the tax burden. So how is your head now, a year on? Still looking for other heads on plates? There is a lot to rage against. Only this week, headlines announced that banks are being “forced” to pay bonuses. But how long can a people sustain a condition of mass, impotent rage while remaining relatively sane and healthy? A few weeks ago, 1,200 peop

Selfish Strikes By State Workers...

Strikes no answer to crisis... AT A time when social solidarity and a sense of personal responsibility are needed as never before, employees in the most protected sector of the economy have behaved selfishly. A one-day strike by a quarter of a million State workers – and the threat of more to come – has damaged our international reputation and made the task of economic recovery even more difficult. When all the rhetoric and special pleading by trade union leaders is stripped away, what is left is the unattractive face of mé féinism. Public sector workers can argue they are not responsible for the recession and that they have already been forced to pay a pension levy. But their anger at the banking sector; at the Government’s mishandling of the situation and the various regulatory failures that contributed to our current difficulties is shared by workers in the private sector and does not exempt them from the tough fiscal actions that are now required to correct the public finances. Jus

€500k Antidote To Recession...

€500k Christmas lights 'an antidote'... The capital's Christmas lights this year have cost a staggering €500,000, but are being offered as an "antidote to the recession". The launch of the Christmas lights may be one of the most honoured traditions of the festive season, but this year's half-a-million-euro price tag has raised eyebrows. Funds for the lights, which will be launched in the capital next week, have been provided by the Dublin City Business Improvement District (BID) and Bord Gais, in partnership with a number of retailers on Henry Street. Although spending is tight as the country spirals further into recession, and costs are cut everywhere, this seasonal tradition is one that Dubliners will not have to say goodbye to. Richard Guiney, CEO of Dublin City BID said: "Christmas in Dublin is a magical experience. "The enchanting atmosphere is unmissable and is something that people travel from all over the world each year to enjoy and experien

What Recession??????

Public to ignore recession with festive spending... IRISH shoppers will spend twice as much as their European counterparts on presents, food and socialising this Christmas despite the recession. Households will fork out an average of €1,110 during the festive season – almost double the €600 that will be spent in Europe. This is despite shoppers saying they will spend 30% less on gifts, 6% less on food and 22% less on socialising this Christmas, according to figures compiled by accountancy firm Deloitte. Irish people plan to spend three times more on socialising than those in Germany and Italy this Christmas. An average of €180 per household will be spent at pubs and restaurants, which is the highest spend in Europe. In an attempt to lure shoppers, retailers said they plan to begin their sales earlier than ever this year, according to chief executive of Retail Excellence Ireland (REI) David Fitzsimons. "You’ll find a lot of nervous retailers out there who are keen to convert stock

Property Price Drop Confusion...

Price drop? About 50% - and all agree... PROPERTY prices to fall 45 per cent, one of this week’s headlines read; property prices have fallen 70 to 80 per cent, said another. And just last week, the ESRI/Permanent TSB reported that prices were down 24.4 per cent “from the peak in February 2007”. Confused? Yes, especially if you didn’t take in that international ratings agency Fitch’s warnings of a 45 per cent drop in Irish property prices related to the fall from a peak, which it said was in December 2006. And exasperated, if like estate agent Ian Finnegan of Finnegan Menton, you’re well aware that prices have already fallen by as much as 50 per cent. Since when? “Mid-2006,” says Finnegan, which he identifies as the real peak. Most in the industry agree with him: MyHome’s property consultant Paul Murgatroyd reckons prices have already fallen by an average of 40 per cent and have another 10 per cent or so more to fall before the market hits bottom – probably in the second half of 2010. I

Emigration Hits New High...

Emigration hits new high as foreign workers leave... FOREIGN workers have been losing their jobs in droves and leaving the country -- resulting in the first net emigration since 1996. Figures from the Central Statistics Office show that a quarter of all the jobs held by foreign workers disappeared in the 12 months to last April. Most of these belonged to workers from eastern Europe. This job loss compared with a drop of 8pc in employment overall. This reduction, and a doubling of unemployment to more than 11pc, is the steepest decline in the labour market ever recorded. It was driven by a loss of more than one in three of all building jobs -- where employment collapsed by 86,000 -- a 13pc fall in retail and wholesale, and a 9pc drop in industrial employment. Analysts say the worst of the jobless rises may be over, with increasing emigration keeping down the total. They expect unemployment to peak at around 14pc next year -- better than earlier estimates of 17pc. "These figures to