Daft Property - Irish Property News

THE average price of a house in Ireland is now €70,000 less than at the peak of the property boom, according to new figures. Dublin and commuter belt homeowners have been particularly badly hit by the ongoing downturn in house prices. The latest Permanent tsb/ESRI monthly figures on house sales show the average price of a house nationally in June was just over €240,000. This is down from €311,000 in February 2007 when the market peaked. In Dublin, the average price of a home is now just under €320,000. This is a drop of over 15pc on the same time last year, considerably worse than the 10pc average fall outside of the capital. It is expected that the trend will continue for the immediate future, said a spokesperson for Permanent TSB. "The index today confirms the pattern of recent months. Poor demand and significant oversupply have combined to cancel out the benefits of lower interest rates to mean that prices continue to weaken. This pattern is likely to persist for some time,&qu

Underwater mortgages: a guide to survival... Latest estimates suggest that as many as 340,000 home-owners, or one in five homes, are stuck in negative equity... HINDSIGHT IS a wonderful thing. Looking back at the prices people paid for Irish property during the boom, it’s easy to see how unsustainable they were. However at the time, despite warnings from everyone from the Central Bank to the Economist magazine that Ireland’s property market was a bubble which had to burst, banks and consumers ignored the advice and ploughed money into property, propping up prices until the inevitable collapse during 2008. Now, latest estimates suggest that as many as 340,000 home owners, or one in five homes, are stuck in negative equity and prices are still sliding . If this is the case, then people who purchased property as far back as 2003 with loan-to-values (LTVs) of more than 80 per cent, will discover that they owe more to the bank than what their house is worth. For example, at the peak of the

Home debt-trap hits 340,000... Massive rise in borrowers caught in negative equity AS many as 340,000 people could now be in negative equity following a sharp fall in house prices. New research which reveals up to a third of a million people owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth is considerably higher than recent estimates that found 250,000 homeowners were in negative equity. Being in negative equity means you cannot switch mortgages for a better deal, fund a move to a larger home to start a family, or move house to take a job somewhere else. Economist with property website Daft.ie Ronan Lyons has calculated that 340,000 people, or one in five homes, are now in this predicament. "That's 340,000 homes where if the homeowners have to sell, they will not be able to pay the bank back solely through the money they get from selling the house," Mr Lyons said on his blog site (ronanlyons.wordpress.com). The findings are broadly in line with a survey by Amarach

Economist says 15pc chance of country going bankrupt... CUTTING the Irish minimum wage is an "economic no-brainer" while social welfare rates must also be tackled to kick the economy back into gear, a senior official at the Economist Intelligence Unit said yesterday. Economist Dan O'Brien also gave the Irish state a 15pc change of "going bankrupt" in the next year, a bleak outlook that comes just a month after ratings agency Fitch gave the country a 1.5pc chance of defaulting over the next decade. Mr O'Brien was addressing the AGM lunch of small business lobby group ISME, which had just voted in Kildare accountant Eilis Quinlan as their next chairman. Asked by Friends First economist Jim Power for his views on the lowering of the minimum wage, Mr O'Brien described the move as an "open and shut case from an economic point of view". Ireland's minimum wage, at €8.65, is the second highest in Europe. "You only have to look at the competit

We've never had it so bad, ESRI warns... Recession worst since the 1930s, think-tank reveals IRELAND is suffering the worst recession of any advanced country since the 1930s, the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) warns in a grim analysis of the economy. Unemployment could rise above 500,000 as national income (GNP) is forecast to fall by 14pc over the three years from 2008 to 2010. The fall in national income beats the 11pc decline in the Finnish crisis of 1990 to 1993, when the collapse of the Soviet Union suddenly deprived Finland of its main market. The ESRI believes this year will be the worst of the crisis, with income per person plunging by more than 9pc in real terms. But there will be further decline next year, with a 1.2pc fall in national income. The stark outline comes as new figures will today show that the rate of increase in unemployment has slowed, but that 384,000 people are signing on. The CSO statistics reveal that an additional 11,000 signed on the li

Warning that house prices may fall by 80%... HOUSING MARKET: IRELAND WILL see more demolition than construction of houses over the next decade, as the economy struggles to recover from the collapse of the housing market and the emergence of “zombie” banks , UCD economist Morgan Kelly told the conference. In a presentation that drew several collective intakes of breath, Mr Kelly predicted that house prices would fall by 80 per cent from peak to trough in real terms. “Construction, but not demolition, of residential and commercial property will fall to zero for the foreseeable future,” he said. Low levels of education among those employed in construction – where worker numbers peaked at about 280,000 – meant retraining would not be straightforward. Recovery will be slow: “It has taken us 10 years to get into this situation – it will in all likelihood take us 10 years to get out of it.” Mr Kelly said he had been hailed as being extremely prescient as a result of his warnings in relation t

A 50pc descent from peak to trough... IF there is one economic certainty for 2009 it is that Irish house prices will continue to fall just as the economy accelerates in reverse. Even the most bullish of commentators or indeed vested interests have pencilled in 2010 as the earliest date for a turnaround. According to the ESRI, which is now firmly in the bear's camp, prices are likely to end 2009 at the same level as the last half of 2003. This means anyone who bought from 2004 on is very likely to have a home worth less than they paid for it. With the economy set to decline by 5 per cent or more and employment to fall by as many as 140,000 jobs resulting in double digit unemployment figures, people will simply hold off on most purchases. According to Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First this deterioration in the labour market with massive job losses and increased job uncertainty as well as downward pressure on wages will keep sentiment pretty negative. The result, he says, wi

IT’S 3 a.m. at Doheny & Nesbitt, a favorite watering hole of Dublin’s political and business elite, and the property tycoon Sean Dunne stoops to retrieve a penny from the pub’s grimy floor. One would think that Mr. Dunne, Ireland’s best-known building developer, would be in bed at this hour. It’s a weeknight, after all, and he has meetings that begin before first light. What’s more, the Irish economy, pummeled by the most severe housing bust in Europe, has collapsed. And the gossip around town is that Mr. Dunne, whose brazen deal-making and Donald Trump-like lifestyle epitomized the country’s euphoric boom, might be going bankrupt. But, no matter, a penny is a penny. “I am never, never too proud to pick a penny up from the floor,” Mr. Dunne said. He is on perhaps his fifth pint of Guinness, capping a rollicking night of Champagne cocktails, followed by a wine-soaked dinner — yet his thick brogue is clear of even the faintest slurring. “I grew up with nothing and I know the value of

The latest house price figures, which show prices falling by 0.5pc in November, seriously underestimate the true extent by which prices have fallen. And there is almost certainly more bad news to come in the New Year. Every month, mortgage bank Permanent TSB publishes its index of house prices. The index, which is compiled by the ESRI and has shown a decline in house prices for every month since March 2007, is generally regarded as being the most authoritative and up-to-date source of information on the state of the Irish housing market. foolproof Unfortunately, the Permo numbers are not foolproof. They are based on completed house prices during the month. With huge stocks of unsold new and second-hand houses on the market, and up to 18-months supply at current levels of demand by some estimates, sales are taking much longer to close than they used to. What this means is that the Permo numbers reflect sales that were agreed four, five or six months ago, as far back as last May or June,

140,000 homeowners 'have fallen into negative equity'... Jim Power, chief economist with Friends First, said: "I reckon the majority of first-time buyers who bought into the market over the last three years are in negative equity." Analysing the gains made up to the peak of the housing boom, and the losses since, Mr Power said negative equity was affecting "at least 140,000 people and that's rising by the day". He warned that, in terms of the recession, "we haven't seen anything yet" and predicted the numbers in negative equity could reach 200,000 by the end of 2009. Latest Census figures show there were 570,000 residential mortgage holders in 2006, with tens of thousands of new mortgages taken out since. So the continuing decline in house prices means that one in three mortgage holders are likely find themselves trapped in a home worth less than the loan they took out to pay for it. With €125bn owed on Irish mortgages, homeowners facing r

Poles flee ailing Irish economy... When the European Union expanded eastward in 2004, Ireland opened its doors to workers entering from former communist states to help maintain record economic growth. Now, immigrants are heading for the exit. The number of people leaving Ireland next year will outstrip those moving to the country for the first time in 14 years, according to Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin. The biggest exodus will be among the 170,000 workers who arrived the past four years from Poland and other east European states. ''It's a very hard situation,'' said Artur Kawczynski, 30, who lost his factory job in Galway on Ireland's west coast 10 days ago. ''I rang my friends in Poland to ask what job opportunities there are like.'' Immigrants like Kawczynski fed the manufacturing and building booms that helped double the size of Ireland's economy during the past 10 years and made it the most dynamic in western Europe. N

THE GOVERNMENT has no plan to deal with the biggest economic crisis in a quarter of a century and lacks the conviction to win public confidence, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny told an opening session of a two-day special conference of his parliamentary party in Co Clare yesterday. Warning that the next general election "may come a lot sooner than expected", he told his colleagues that if they were "united, disciplined and tough" they would win power in the next Dáil. Focusing on the Government's approach to the economy, Mr Kenny said people were frightened because nobody seemed to be in charge. "In response to the biggest economic crisis in a quarter century, the Government first denied, then dithered, then went on holidays ." He added: "All the Government seems to be able to do is congratulate itself - in advance - for tough actions they haven't yet taken, and they'd never have needed to take if they'd done their job well enough in

The Irish Times has a report from Stephen Collins, (Political Editor,)on the deteriorating state of Ireland's finances... "Tax Returns expected to show tax shortfall of at least €1.5bn... THE SCALE of the financial crisis facing the country will become clear today with the publication of the exchequer returns, which are expected to show a dramatic shortfall of at least €1.5 billion in tax revenues for the first half of the year. The Cabinet discussed the rapidly deteriorating financial situation yesterday, but final decisions on the strategy to deal with the issue will not be taken until next week's Cabinet meeting after Ministers have considered the official figures. The Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, confirmed in the Dáil yesterday that tax revenues for the first six months were down but he said exact figures would not be available until today. He added that the Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan had briefed the Government in general terms about the figures and would be issuing

It's Dire Straits and and new tune called "Time To Tighten Belts In Ireland!" The Irish Independent reports "Double trouble on fuel, house prices... Last night economists warned that consumers will have to "tighten their belts" and avoid all luxury purchases if they want to ride out the economic slowdown. Figures from the latest Permanent tsb/ESRI index revealed that house prices fell by 1.1pc in April, bringing the annual decline in property prices to 9.2pc. And an Irish Independent survey showed that the price of diesel has shot through the €1.40 barrier -- it has now increased by an average of 9c a litre in just two weeks. Friends First chief economist Jim Power said: "I wouldn't be recommending to anybody to be going out there taking debt on board at the moment or living beyond their means. "Definitely we are in a belt-tightening environment for the next couple of years. Anybody who behaves differently is being very naive and foolish."

Latest figures confirm the "softening" in house prices and according to a report from the Irish Independent... " HOUSE prices fell by 9pc in the past year, wiping €27,500 off the value of the average home. National house prices fell by 0.7pc in March, according to yesterday's Permanent TSB/ERSI house price index. But the price decline for first-time buyer houses was greater, at 10pc, as potential buyers have been squeezed hard by banks hiking up interest rates for new customers. A 10pc drop in First-Time Buyer (FTB) house prices will see some 40,000 new buyers go into negative equity by the end of the year, according to Davy Stockbrokers. Negative equity is when the value of the mortgage is greater than the value of the home. Economists also warned that prices will have to fall further if first time buyers are to be enticed back into the market. New buyers have also been hit by the withdrawal of 100pc mortgages, and the need to find deposits of up to 10pc. Over a th