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Fall In House Prices...

Fall in house prices second-highest in EU... Irish house prices fell at the second-fastest rate in the European Union last year and at a rate that was almost five times faster than the EU average, according to data compiled by academics based at the National University of Ireland in Maynooth (NUIM). The figures published by the university’s All-Island Research Observatory show that Irish property prices are now nearly 30 per cent below a standardised average dating back to the middle of 2010. They indicate that the Republic has had the worst-performing property market in the EU over the last six years , although markets in Spain and Bulgaria have performed almost as badly in recent years. The data does contain some glimmers of hope that a recovery may be in sight or at least that the worst of the price falls are over. The figures, compiled from Eurostat price surveys, show the Republic reporting the third-highest quarterly property increases in the third quarter of last ye...

How Low Can House Prices Go?

Ireland’s property boom was the biggest, and our crash the most violent. In a week that brought news of a further drop in house prices, Economics Editor DAN O’BRIEN explains why the market won’t recover any time soon... ‘THE FUNDAMENTALS of the property market are sound, going forward.” This mantra was repeated constantly during the boom by those who believed that no risks were attached to soaring property prices. If any reminder was needed of how badly wrong this view was, it came this week with new official figures showing yet another fall in residential property prices in August. This, according to statisticians, brought the total decline since the property-price peak, in late 2007, to more than 43 per cent, one of the biggest drops in the world. The latest figures from the auctioneer Sherry FitzGerald, also published this week, are worse still, suggesting that average prices are down by a huge 58 per cent since the bubble burst. The belief that property was a one-way bet b...

Nama On Wikileaks!

Nama might prove 'laboratory' for EU, leaked cable said... THE FIANNA Fáil-Green government considered the National Asset Management Agency (Nama) “might prove to be a laboratory” for other European Union states faced with banks on the brink of collapse, according to the latest batch of diplomatic communications published by Wikileaks. Ireland’s permanent Ambassador to the EU, Rory Montgomery, made the comment to the US ambassador to Ireland, Dan Rooney, at a meeting in Brussels in September 2009. Mr Montgomery revealed the EU “was watching closely” the establishment of Nama. At the same meeting he said that year’s budget would focus on cuts in public sector pay. The cable reports Mr Montgomery’s view was that “Ireland [was] paying too many civil servants too much to provide public services that could be provided for much less.” Mr Rooney met EU commissioner Charlie McCreevy on the same trip. Mr McCreevy had advised the Fianna Fáil-Green coalition to act quickly in es...

Mortgage Rescue To Cost You €50,000...

Mortgage rescue deal could cost you up to €50,000... But it is still only option for thousands. STRUGGLING homeowners who make deals with lenders to reduce their mortgage payments face paying tens of thousands of euro in extra interest charges. New figures show that almost 70,000 people have now restructured their mortgages -- mostly by extending the repayment period or switching to 'interest only' payments. The Irish Independent can reveal that those with a typical €200,000 home loan who extend their mortgage term by just five years face paying €34,000 more in interest charges. And borrowers could end up paying more than €50,000 in extra interest for the same €200,000 mortgage. The startling figures have been produced by personal finance expert Brendan Burgess. They reveal the huge long-term costs for families seeking to ease the burden. But the Central Bank, which has been leading the way on policies to ease the mortgage crisis, admitted it had "no figures...

Leaders Handled Economy Like Intoxicated Joyriders...

Ahern and Cowen handled the Irish economy like 'intoxicated joyriders'... FORMER Taoisigh Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen handled the Irish economy like "intoxicated joyriders" before it collapsed, a leading academic has said. Dr Ed Walsh, the University of Limerick's founding president, also launched a blistering broadside against the public sector as he delivered the annual Michael Collins oration at Beal na mBlath in Co Cork. He described it as "flabby and over-paid" as well as "antiquated and dysfunctional". And Dr Walsh said that the current Government had to reverse a ludicrous situation whereby Ireland had allowed its basic jobseekers' allowance to be greater than the average industrial wage of most EU accession states. "The crisis that is convulsing Europe has its origins in the partisan management of the euro currency from the outset. Sustained low interest rates to facilitate a dominant Germany in the process of reunif...

Last Chance For Euro...

Eurozone governments in last-chance saloon to save the single currency... All of the metaphors have been used -- from edge-of-a-cliff, meltdowns and hanging threads -- but the real terror confronting the eurozone is that its banks, out of fear that other banks' solvency is threatened by default on sovereign debt, could stop lending to one another. This would bring the credit system to a halt and the ensuing liquidity crisis would, if left unresolved, result in insolvency and default. European economies could languish in deep recession for a decade or more and this is how a euro crisis would play out -- in sets of insolvency, uncertainty and illiquidity. So what exactly happened to the eurozone officials over the past 10 days? First, finance ministers admitted there may need to be a default on sovereign debt. They did not specify for which country or in what form. Instead, they tried to duck out for their summer holidays and said the details would be announced in September. ...

Banks Stop Property Market Recovery...

Banks tell families -- no loans for homes... Mortgage approval plummets by 90% as banks hoard bailout cash A RECOVERY in the property market is being stopped dead in its tracks by the banks, which are turning down at least half of all mortgage applications -- mostly from people who are highly creditworthy. With many experts now convinced that the market has gone below bottom, the difficulty in accessing credit for even high-quality applicants has reached crisis point. Banks are continuing to reject applications for credit and 2011 looks like posting the worst mortgage-origination figures in four decades. On Friday AIB, which is to merge with Educational Building Society, won conditional approval from the European Commission for yet another capital injection -- this time of up to €13.1bn. It is part of more than €19bn that was approved after the latest bank stress tests and comes on top of billions in taxpayers' money that has already been pumped into the banking sector bu...

Dublin Protest...

Dublin protest over EU-IMF bailout... Thousands of people are expected to participate in a protest in Dublin this afternoon against the EU-IMF austerity programme. The protest, organised by the Enough Campaign, is being supported by trade unions, TDs, political organisations and groups seeking to maintain education and health services in their areas. Participants are scheduled to meet at Parnell Square at 2pm. The Enough Campaign said suggestions that the State’s implementation of the EU-IMF austerity programme was going well were badly misplaced. People Before Profit TD Richard Boyd Barrett, an organiser of the march, said he expected a good number of people who were “enraged” by the austerity programme to take part. "It is absolutely mystifying how the EU-IMF delegations 'approval' of the Government’s implementation of austerity in this country is being portrayed by the government and some commentators as a 'good news' story," he said. "We...

Irish Not Top Home Buyers In Europe...

Figures dispel myth that we're top home buyers in Europe... HOME ownership in Ireland is in line with the average in the European Union -- debunking the myth that home ownership here is among the highest in the EU. The Spanish, Greeks, Portuguese and people in a host of former Eastern Bloc states all have higher ownership levels than Ireland, figures obtained by the Irish Independent show. Some 74pc of Irish people own their own home. This is in line with the average for the 27 members of the EU. Ireland ranks 18th in home ownership levels out of 31 countries looked by the the EU statistics agency Eurostat. The figures are for 2009, the latest available. The highest home ownership is in Romania (96pc), followed by Lithuania (91pc), Hungary (89pc), Slovakia (89pc), Estonia (87pc), Latvia (87pc), Bulgaria (87pc), Norway (85pc), Iceland (84pc), Spain (83pc), Slovenia (81pc), Malta (79pc), Czech Republic (77pc) and Greece (76pc). Ireland comes in at 73.7pc, while 70pc of pe...

Irish Debt Is Junk...

Irish debt cut to 'junk' status as euro zone crisis deepens... Irish debt was cut to “junk” status by credit rating agency Moody’s, last night, hours after the Minister for Finance said that measures to aid Greece proposed by euro zone finance ministers on Monday night would benefit Ireland. Moody’s appeared to contradict the Minister last night saying the measures being contemplated for Greece had increased the chance that Ireland might default on some of its debts if it has to seek another bailout from Europe. The resulting downgrade is expected to lead to a sell-off in Irish bonds when markets open today as many lenders will only hold bonds considered to be investment grade by privately owned rating agencies such as Moody’s. Bloxham analysts said the downgrade would prompt some forced selling by investors who are not allowed to hold non-investment grade securities, and would be dropped from some of the bond indices. “In our view this latest move by Moody’s is cynic...

IMF & EU's €9bn Profit On Irish Bailout...

Noonan spells out high cost of our rescue... THE IMF and EU will make a €9bn profit over the lifetime of the bailout loans to Ireland. Finance Minister Michael Noonan last night revealed for the first time just how much the international agencies will make if the €85bn in loans are drawn down in total. The British government is also entitled to send auditors and accountants here to check the books as part of its bilateral deal to Ireland, the Irish Independent has learned. It is also insisting that if Ireland ever leaves the euro the UK must be repaid in full and in sterling -- and not in any new Irish currency. The developments come as the IMF-EU bailout team arrives back in Dublin today to begin the latest examination on whether the Government is meeting the terms of the €85bn programme of aid. The progress of public sector reform and changes to wage-setting systems for low earners will be discussed in talks with IMF-EU bailout team. And it also appears likely the Gover...

Are Euros Safe If Greeks Default?

Is your money safe in Euros if the Greeks default? A big fat Greek default is on the cards and the Lehman's style spillover might have a dire domino effect on Ireland and the euro. People are worried about Argentina-style hyperinflation making their money worthless or a government smash and grab on their precious savings if everything falls apart. What to do to protect money is the hot topic of the hour. "This is being discussed at the board tables of business, charities, you name it," says Niamh Cahill of Irishdeposits.ie. "The deposit rate of interest has been very much relegated as the most important concern, what's important now is safety." So, if the worst came to the worst, what might happen? "It could be one of two things," says Cahill. "The Government could say 'as of tomorrow we're going to devalue all deposits and loans on the balance sheets of banks in Ireland'. Or else they could say 'we're going to de...

True Cost Of Euro Dream...

Ireland left to count the true cost of euro dream... An exclusionary venture that values banks ahead of ordinary people – this is not what we signed up for. JUST THREE years ago we were being bamboozled into voting for the Lisbon Treaty, the then latest stage in the creation of a wondrous European project that would consolidate peace on the continent and promote yet further wealth creation. It would also give Europe a voice in world affairs corresponding to its financial clout, give greater administrative cohesion to the decision-making processes in the union and incorporate the industries of war (defence industries) into the corporate structure of the union. The Lisbon Treaty had arisen from the refusal of the French and Dutch electorates to approve a draft European constitution. The new treaty was devised to give effect to the purpose of the draft constitution, while avoiding the tiresome ordeal of obtaining electoral approval anywhere, except Ireland. The Irish electorate, a...

Dublin Rents Among EU Highest...

Some Dublin rents among highest in EU despite decline... The relatively high rents for Dublin prime office and retail accommodation are highlighted by the latest Knight Frank summer survey of European rents and yields. Dublin's prime shopping centre rents, at €3,750 per sqm per year, are the second-most expensive of the 25 cities surveyed and surpassed only by London's West End, where rents average €5,556 per sqm. Parisian rents, at €2,000 per sqm, are little over half those in Dublin. Dublin shopping centre rents are the only ones to show declines. Keiron Diamond, director at Knight Frank Ireland, points out that many distressed tenants have secured rent reductions or other forms of deals with landlords, some of whom, however, are reluctant to publicly acknowledge rent cuts. The values of Dublin shopping centres have declined and this is also reflected in the yields, which at 7.75pc, shows the values are the fourth cheapest in Europe. Some might argue that the high...

World's Worst House Price Falls...

IRISH house prices plummeted at almost the fastest rate in the world last year, new research has revealed. Ireland was placed in 48th position in a rating of house growth across 50 countries for last year, with prices dropping by 11.9pc. Russian houses plummeted by as much as 13.7pc in the same period while Malta was also above Ireland's fall at 14.1pc. Meanwhile, one of the fastest growing economies in the Dubai house prices fell by 8.2pc for the year, according to the survey by Knight Frank. Asia remains the top-performing continent with a recorded 8.4pc growth over the last 12 months, but even this figure is a significant fall from 17.8pc a year earlier. Performance Head of residential at Knight Frank, Liam Bailey, said that at first glance at the results table, it would suggest it's business as usual, with Asian countries firmly implanted at the top of the table and both Europe and North America languishing behind. "But there are a few less predictable re...

The European Debt Crisis...

In Oscar Wilde's Importance of Being Earnest, Lady Bracknell memorably remarks that: "To lose one parent… may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness." The Euro-zone's need to rescue three of its members (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) with three others (Spain, Belgium and Italy) increasingly eyed with varying degrees of concern smacks of institutionalised incompetence. Executed with Northern European creativity, charm, flexibility and humility and Mediterranean organisation, leadership diligence and appetite for hard work, the European rescue plan – "the grand compact" - is failing. European Debt Crisis returns In little over a year since the announcement of Greece's debt problems, the European debt crisis has ebbed and flowed with markets oscillating between euphoria (resolution) and despair (default or restructuring). The European Union's (EU) "confidence-boosting", short-term "liquidity enhancement...

More Pain With Tax Hike...

More pain for PAYE workers as tax hike looks likely... THE GOVERNMENT is on the brink of breaking its election solemn promise not to raise income tax. The tax rise threat emerged as the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted that it is preparing to introduce a 0.25pc hike in interest rates next month -- which will add almost €400 yearly to the average €250,000 mortgage. The blow to struggling homeowners will be further compounded by a new property tax and water charge set to be introduced in the new year. Finance Minister Michael Noonan told the Dail yesterday: "I am not going to rule out any tax initiative, or any tax increase or any tax reduction." He added that the "fraught" condition of our public finances meant he was not in a position to predict take hikes, including income tax. The minister was also forced to concede that EU states such as France and Germany are looking to take an interest in the national assets of bailed-out states such as Ireland. ...

Ireland Will Default...

We will default, so let's get on with it. But it's not all bad -- a top financier thinks Ireland's glass is half full and our bank debts will be shared... Ireland will default, when it does happen we should not do it alone but with Greece and Portugal; we should consider leaving Europe given how badly they treat us; we need to take a scalpel to our public sector and Ireland will take five to seven years from now to recover. Those are the views of Larry McDonald, former Lehman Brothers vice president turned international best-selling author, who was in Dublin last week speaking at the Irish Funds Industry Association. McDonald was, until September 2008, vice president of distressed debt and convertible securities trading at Lehman Brothers. He was heralded by many colleagues at Lehman for both his early 2006 call on the subprime crisis and the $46m in trading profits realised from it. I sat down with him on Friday afternoon last in the heart of the IFSC to discuss ...

New Bailout Panic...

Scramble to stem panic after new bailout gaffe... Alarm after Varadkar claims State will need further loans. THE Government last night scrambled to allay fears that a second bailout is on the cards, following damaging comments by a cabinet minister. Transport Minister Leo Varadkar sparked alarm and confusion when he said the Government may need to get new loans from the European Union and IMF next year. Ahead of an anticipated backlash from investors this morning, Finance Minister Michael Noonan's officials insisted the Coalition's firm plan was still to return to borrowing on the bond markets in 2012. The Department of Finance stressed there was no change in the Government's plans, as Mr Varadkar's comments were reported around the world. Mr Varadkar was also left backpedalling after he was reported as saying: "I think it's very unlikely we'll be able to go back (to borrowing on the bond markets) next year. I think it might take a bit longer......