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The Fragile Eurozone...

Eurozone growing ever more fragile... THE EU united last night in its denials of reports that Greece was preparing to leave the eurozone. These ranged from the EU Commission to the German government to the Greek finance ministry itself. Other governments across the 17-member currency union were also prepared to dismiss the report. Yet the mere hint of such a move was enough to push the single currency down almost 1.5pc -- its biggest drop against the dollar in a year. The report, carried in the German magazine 'Der Spiegel', suggested the Greeks were looking to leave the euro because their debts had become unsustainable. The fact that a leading and reputable German news magazine could suggest such an eventuality simply highlights just how fragile the eurozone has become. It also highlights just how inadequate the European response has been to this economic crisis which began in January 2010. The European approach has been to place a sticking plaster over the problem -- an

The Great Swindle...

The Government, the EU and a great swindle... In a massive shafting of the Irish people, our own leaders and those in Europe threw away our democracy. Let's play a simple game. Let's put together three stories that emerged last week. And when we do this we will see, more clearly than ever, that we were royally screwed, that we are victims of one of the biggest stitch-ups perpetrated on a country since the heyday of colonialism in Africa. We were stitched up by an unholy alliance of our own Government and autonomous undemocratic institutions within the EU, who seem to be answerable to no one, and other institutions within the EU that are supposed to be answerable to us. Each of these stories, if you read them, will have angered and astounded you. But put the three of them together and you will be fit to be tied. Again. The great swindle begins with the European Commission. You probably don't know exactly what the European Commission is. You are vaguely aware that it

Property Mania At Heart Of Crisis...

'Property mania' at heart of bank crisis... The Nyberg report into the handling of the banking crisis has found that the main cause was the 'unhindered expansion of the property bubble'. The Nyberg report into the handling of the banking crisis has found that the crisis was the result of domestic Irish decisions and actions, and not international developments. The report, written by Finnish banking expert Peter Nyberg, said the main cause was the 'unhindered expansion of the property bubble', which was fuelled by banks using money borrowed from international markets. It said the risks linked to the bubble were undetected or seriously misjudged by the authorities. It said any warnings from the authorities were 'modest and insufficient'. The report said nobody abroad forced Irish households, investors, banks and authorities to take what it called 'unsustainable' financial risks. The report referred to the development of a 'national

Bailout Is Most EU Gave...

Bailout will total more than the EU ever gave us... Noonan says interest rate must be renegotiated by next government: THE €85bn IMF-EU bailout will come to more than the total amount of payments received since we joined Europe in 1973, the Sunday Independent can reveal. Fine Gael's Michael Noonan said yesterday that this stark fact showed why the interest rate levied on Ireland must be renegotiated and that any new government's hand will be strengthened by this revelation. In cash terms, Ireland has received €63.7bn from Europe in various agricultural, social and cohesion funding -- far less than the bailout forced on the Irish by Jean Claude Trichet's European Central Bank in late November. When those payments are adjusted for inflation, they total €99bn -- that is fractionally more than the total cost of the bailout when the penal interest rates are factored in. When Ireland's payments to Europe are subtracted, our net receipts from the EU budget amount t

Ireland To Be Crippled By €10bn A Year Interest...

THE country is facing crippling interest payments of €10 billion a year after the European Union and IMF agreed to an €85bn rescue package to fund the economy for the next three years. The bulk of the money, €50bn, will be used to pay for the day-to-day running of the country. The banks will receive €8bn immediately to restore their cash reserves; €2bn will be on standby and a further €25bn will be available if and when they need it. The money will come from the IMF, our Euro area partners and loans from Britain, Denmark and Sweden. In addition, the country has been told to take €12.5bn from the National Pension Reserve Fund and use €5bn the NTMA had already borrowed to pay for early 2011. The expected average interest rate for the bailout will be 5.83%. By 2013 the national debt is expected to rise above €200bn and by then almost a quarter of all taxes raised will be used to pay interest service costs. At the end of the term this is expected to have climbed to €9.66bn a year if the ba

Cowen Out...

A nation's outrage to drive Cowen out... Poll: public welcomes the IMF but roundly furious at government ‘lies’ THE Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, and his Government are at risk of being ignominiously driven from office, such is the level of anger sweeping the country this weekend. The people have broadly welcomed the arrival of the IMF, are largely indifferent to emotive sentiment associated with a perceived loss of national sovereignty, but are roundly furious at the manner in which the Government has “lied” about the unprecedented events of last week. As the Government now strives to further “spin” itself out of what is, by any measure, a glaringly obvious credibility deficit, its efforts to do so will be hampered by a disintegration of cohesion within its own ranks. This weekend, the Taoiseach is at odds with the governor of the Central Bank; the Minister for Finance is in agreement with the governor and, therefore, at odds with the Taoiseach; and at least two senior Cabinet ministers

Europe - It's Not Us, It's You...

DAIL SKETCH: THE PATIENT is a basket case and refusing treatment. “This country has not applied to enter a facility,” insisted the Taoiseach, defiant to the last. He is not going to commit poor Mother Ireland into some sort of economic Shady Pines, to be prodded at by bespectacled eurocrats before being released into the real world with a healthy spending plan and an ankle tag. We’re fine. There is nothing wrong with us. It’s our enemies in the international media and other sinister factions who have it in for us. At least that was Brian Cowen’s belief yesterday afternoon. But as he spoke in the Dáil, the men in the white coats circled ever closer in Brussels, syringes at the ready. “Come, come, Ireland, take your fiscal medicine!” Still, the Taoiseach protested. “We are pre-funded up to mid-2011,” he argued, pleading for more time. Wait until the Ecofin meeting is over, he asked. The Opposition listened to him in the Dáil, looking scared, unanimous in their opinion that the Taoiseach

Time To Plan For The Worst...

'FOR God's sake, Sarge, say something, even if it's only goodbye!" The old joke about the platoon of soldiers about to march over a cliff carries relevance for a Taoiseach and a Government out of step with everybody else and refusing to acknowledge the proximity of the cliff. For much of the last week, the story of Ireland's trouble has jostled for prominence in the headlines with massive world events. It has preoccupied leaders at international conferences. It has filled the pages of the 'Financial Times' and attracted the attention of the media in Europe and the United States. It has provoked comment, almost unanimously gloomy, from leading economists. But "Sarge" has had nothing to say beyond a reassurance that we have enough money in the kitty to last us until the middle of next year. After that, who knows? At any rate, Sarge thinks the cliff is a long way off. Brian Cowen is reportedly "furious" about the reports that we may seek to

We Face Greek Style Crisis...

They're all away as we face Greek-style crisis Immediate action needed on debt, but Dail won't cut short holidays... THE Government is to leave the political apparatus of the State on holiday throughout September -- even though there is growing concern that the country could face a Greek-style crisis before the end of the year. Widespread bewilderment was aroused in high finance circles last week by the publication of photographs of the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, playing golf the day after Ireland's sovereign debt was downgraded again. In what is seen as an example of ill-judged timing, Mr Cowen played golf in Connemara on Wednesday with other seemingly carefree TDs and senators, who still have four weeks of a two-month summer break to go. But while the Oireachtas is in repose, enjoying a longer than usual break, the financial markets are in overdrive and are now evidently training their sights on Ireland with the apparent intention of again testing the resolve of the EU later

Irish Emigration Soars...

Irish emigration soars as Celtic Tiger’s cubs hunt for jobs... The number of people leaving the Republic has swelled far beyond those of every other country in the European Union, says research. An estimated 40,000 people emigrated last year, according to the EU's statistics office, Eurostat, a rate almost twice as high as that of Lithuania, the next most affected country. It is expected the flow may worsen as the Republic faces years of severe financial difficulties. A research institute has warned that 200,000 people, in a country of 4.5 million, may be forced to emigrate by 2015 if job opportunities do not improve. The unprecedented prosperity of the so-called Celtic Tiger years seemed to have consigned emigration to the history books. Its reappearance is regarded with dismay. Some of those leaving are thought to be immigrants who came to Ireland in large numbers from mainland Europe over the last decade and who, unable to find jobs, are returning home. But a large proportion a

The Domino Effect...

The widespread slashing of budget deficits could plunge Europe and the world into a second recession... Let's go over to Rome to hear the vote of the Italian jury. "€26bn in cuts over two years, including savage reductions in health spending and road building." And now it is over to Spain. "Good evening, Madrid. €15bn in spending cuts over two years? Thank you Madrid." Paris? "€5bn in cuts over two years." Athens? A punishing €30bn over three years, on top of previous cuts. Good evening to London, where a new coalition jury has just gathered. "£6.2bn of cuts in the present tax year with much, much more to come." The sound of screaming and howling that can be heard all over Europe resembles a European Cuts Contest. In the last two weeks, almost all EU governments have been slashing their budget deficits in order to prop up stockmarkets, blunt attacks on the euro and the pound and discourage the kind of speculation on sovereign, or national, de

Irish Debt To Eclipse Greece...

Burden of Irish debt could yet eclipse that of Greece... OPINION: What will sink us, unfortunately but inevitably, are the huge costs of the September 2008 bank bailout... IT IS no longer a question of whether Ireland will go bust, but when. Unlike Greece, our woes do not stem from government debt, but instead from the government’s open-ended guarantee to cover the losses of the banking system out of its citizens’ wallets. Even under the most optimistic assumptions about government spending cuts and bank losses, by 2012 Ireland will have a worse ratio of debt to national income than the one that is sinking Greece. On the face of it, Ireland’s debt position does not appear catastrophic. At the start of the year, Ireland’s government debt was two- thirds of GDP: only half the Greek level. (The State also has financial assets equal to a quarter of GDP, but so do most governments, so we will focus on the total debt.) Because of the economic collapse here, the Government is adding to this d

Best Cure Is Emigration ...

Cuts, tax and emigration the harshest medicine... IT'S often been said that the best cure for poverty and unemployment is a job. But the reality of the modern Irish economy is that the best cure is emigration. The Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) said yesterday that 100,000 people would leave Ireland this year and next, keeping a lid on already high unemployment and helping to relieve some of the budgetary pressures on the Government. The loss of 100,000 mainly young people is hardly something to celebrate, but the reality is that without this safety valve the Irish economy would be mired in levels of unemployment last witnessed in the 1980s. The ESRI calculated yesterday that if the amount of people in the labour market had not fallen over the last year via emigration, the rate of unemployment would be about 16pc not the current 13.4pc. Ireland is shipping out its young people to countries like Canada, the US, Australia and the UK, thereby easing the pressure on the e

Bucket Of Cold Water...

EU Commission throws cold water on hopes worst of budget crisis over... THE EU Commission yesterday took on the role of the man who blew out the light at the end of the tunnel. Tuesday was a good day in terms of the public finances. The Government, through the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), managed to borrow €1bn at the lowest interest rates since December 2008, when compared with equivalent German rates. The head of the NTMA suggested the gap between Irish and German interest rates on government debt could be less than 1pc by the end of the year. Any sane person not still living in bubble land would regard that as an eminently reasonable "spread", given the differences between the two economies. But the commission threw a large bucket of cold water on any flickering hopes that the worst of the budget crisis was over. In its formal report on the public finances of 14 EU states, it warned that the tough Irish budgetary plans, over which so much anger and anguish h

All Fools...

David McWilliams: We're all fools if we think recovery plan is patriotic... It's been nearly 18 months since the Government announced its bank guarantee. Anglo Irish Bank was nationalised over a year ago and it is coming up to a year since the Government first mooted the NAMA plan. Yet nothing has actually been done since then. Not a single loan has been transferred to NAMA. There has been lots of talk, lots of bluster and point scoring, but still credit in the economy contracts, house prices continue their slow strangling decline and, most significantly, the rest of the world has moved on. Why the delay? One interpretation is that our government doesn't understand that speed is crucial. If we compare our stagnation with other countries that have been faced with national bankruptcy, we compare dreadfully. Look at what the Swedes achieved in their crisis of 1993 when their property market collapsed along with their banks. In the four months between November 1993 and February

Irish Most Pessimistic In EU...

Irish among most pessimistic in EU about economy - survey... IRISH PEOPLE are among the most pessimistic in Europe about the economic and employment situation in their country and most people expect the situation to be worse in 12 months’ time, new EU research suggests. Although the research also suggests that the Irish are among the most satisfied Europeans with the area they live in, contentment with the public administration is very low and the cost of living is a major source of unhappiness. In a report drawn up amid signs that the world’s worst recession since the 1930s may be bottoming out, the European Commission warns that the social consequences of the downturn may take months or even years to manifest themselves fully. Irish attitudes to the situation were gauged in a survey of 1,007 people in May and June last year, following months of bad economic news. Some 90 per cent of Irish respondents described the situation as bad, one of seven countries in which nine out of 10 peopl

Red Card For Lisbon Lies...

It's time to give Lisbon lies the red card... Michael O'Leary might be an obnoxious prat, but you have to give him credit for his hard neck. When Michael is trying to put one over he just looks you right in the eye and delivers his baloney with a wink and a smile. Perhaps experience has taught him that few are immune to his brand of leprechaun charm. "Hey, begob, sure 'tis only me, Mickey O -- pulling another fast one on ye, so I am!" If we're going to be smothered in bullshit in the weeks to come (and we are, dear reader, we bloody are), at least O'Leary's variety provides a degree of entertainment -- and we'll get to Mick's bullshit in a moment. There's a blizzard of the stuff headed our way, the intent being to leave us overwhelmed, jaded and ready to obediently swallow not one but two bitter pills prescribed by Mr Cowen's government. Nama is the bigger of the bitter pills -- it's approximately the size of a grand piano -- a mass