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House Prices To Fall By Another Fifth

NCB Stockbrokers said the price of buying a home will fall by at least a fifth in the years ahead as Ireland recovers "from the largest credit and housing bubble in OECD history". The Dublin-based broker calculated that the eventual national decline from peak to trough will be 60pc. Average prices have fallen 47pc so far which implies that prices must fall by at least another 20pc before hitting rock bottom. "The boost from domestic demand will not be material until 2013. Unemployment, currently 14.3pc, will remain above 10pc until 2016," NCB economist Brian Devine warned. "As such, there should be no surprise that property prices continue to decline, mortgage arrears continue to rise and retail sales remain weak," he said. Prices in Dublin have already fallen close to this amount with apartment prices in Dublin down 58pc and house prices in Dublin down 54pc. Mr Devine said he remains worried about the fundamentals underpinning the Irish economy but kept ...

Property Mania At Heart Of Crisis...

'Property mania' at heart of bank crisis... The Nyberg report into the handling of the banking crisis has found that the main cause was the 'unhindered expansion of the property bubble'. The Nyberg report into the handling of the banking crisis has found that the crisis was the result of domestic Irish decisions and actions, and not international developments. The report, written by Finnish banking expert Peter Nyberg, said the main cause was the 'unhindered expansion of the property bubble', which was fuelled by banks using money borrowed from international markets. It said the risks linked to the bubble were undetected or seriously misjudged by the authorities. It said any warnings from the authorities were 'modest and insufficient'. The report said nobody abroad forced Irish households, investors, banks and authorities to take what it called 'unsustainable' financial risks. The report referred to the development of a 'national ...

Growing Dole Queues In Ireland...

Growing dole queues expose fragility of Irish economy... Unemployment figures show Ireland cannot afford to lose a single multinational – but this is not stopping France and Germany trying to force it to raise corporation tax: Sometimes you have to wonder if the rest of Europe understands the fragility of Ireland's economy. Do the Germans and French not understand that there is a prospect of zero growth in the economy in the next three years and that forcing multinationals out of the country could finish Ireland off altogether? Their constant attacks on Ireland's low corporation tax rate have even got on the nerves of Ryanair's Michael O'Leary, who has warned that any increase will jeopardise the country's ability to pay off its debts. Figures out on Tuesday showed a surprise rise in unemployment. Yet Ireland swiftly came under attack again for its low corporation tax of 12.5%, as if this was any part of a fix for the challenging times ahead. German fina...

Cowen Helped Economic 'Meltdown' in Ireland...

Reports blame Cowen for stoking fires of 'meltdown'... TAOISEACH Brian Cowen's overheating of the economy and failure to deflate the property bubble when he was Finance Minister will be identified today as contributing to the banking crisis. The damning findings will be contained in two reports into the banking crisis, which senior coalition sources last night said were "devastating". Contrary to the Taoiseach's version of events a fortnight ago, where he sought to absolve himself of blame in a major speech on the economy, Mr Cowen's budgetary policies are singled out for criticism. The reports also: * Attack bank directors for allowing the financial crisis to develop. * Criticise the Financial Regulator for being too lax. * Find the Central Bank failed to take responsibility in the overall stability of the banking system. * Point out economic projections made by a number of organisations were wrong. The report by Central Bank governor Prof...

Recession Damage Is Permanent...

Recession damage to Ireland is permanent, says OECD... THE global economic crisis has left deep scars that will take years to heal, but the Government must start now to plan for economic growth, said a new report from the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). Highlighting the scale and depth of the recession, the report estimates a permanent loss of 3pc in output (GDP) on average across the 30 countries of the OECD. Unemployment will persist at higher levels than before the crisis. The report said Ireland has experienced a severe set-back in living standards that is "likely to have permanent effects". But it noted that, despite this, Ireland's per-capita income is now close to the average of the upper half of the 30 OECD countries. Structure However, the structure of the Irish economy means real income is 15pc less than output -- the second largest such gap in the OECD. In its review of Ireland's economic policies, the Paris-based thinktank sa...

Mortgage Mayham...

The mortgage debt crisis in this country is much worse than the banks' official figures would have us believe... A report published two weeks ago by prestigious think tank Organisation for Cooperation and Development (OECD) on the mortgage crisis here was unambiguous. For a dozen years, Irish house prices raced ahead at the fastest rate and for a longer time than anywhere else in the world. When the bubble burst in 2007, it left Irish households facing – along with the Dutch and the Danes – the highest family debts in the world. A bird's eye view of OECD housing markets by Christophe Andre reveals that Irish house prices since the 1970s were many times above the prices in Britain, Netherlands, Spain and France. Some years, several countries experienced house price booms simultaneously, said Andre, who defines a boom as prices having increased by 25% or more over five years. Doubling of household debt But since 1995, 13 countries of his sample of 17 countries simultaneously sho...

Get A Move On Lads...

For God's sake get a move on... THE message from the OECD is clear. Translated into the vernacular, it is: "For God's sake, get a move on, lads" The secretary general of the helpful international body warned that cuts in public spending should begin immediately. In other words, the idea that a restructuring, spread over three to five years, would solve the crisis in the public finances is misguided. Mr Angel Gurria was probably too diplomatic to say as much in public. Instead, he looked Brian Lenihan in the eye and told him: "The problem is that you may not have time, Mr Minister . . . The markets are zeroing in on countries." The "markets" are loaning this country €2bn a month so that the Government's pay cheques for public and civil servants will not bounce, and so that the 160,000 private sector workers who have been thrown out of work in the past year will at least have some euro to buy food for their families. Yesterday's lowering of I...