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Europe - It's Not Us, It's You...

DAIL SKETCH: THE PATIENT is a basket case and refusing treatment. “This country has not applied to enter a facility,” insisted the Taoiseach, defiant to the last. He is not going to commit poor Mother Ireland into some sort of economic Shady Pines, to be prodded at by bespectacled eurocrats before being released into the real world with a healthy spending plan and an ankle tag. We’re fine. There is nothing wrong with us. It’s our enemies in the international media and other sinister factions who have it in for us. At least that was Brian Cowen’s belief yesterday afternoon. But as he spoke in the Dáil, the men in the white coats circled ever closer in Brussels, syringes at the ready. “Come, come, Ireland, take your fiscal medicine!” Still, the Taoiseach protested. “We are pre-funded up to mid-2011,” he argued, pleading for more time. Wait until the Ecofin meeting is over, he asked. The Opposition listened to him in the Dáil, looking scared, unanimous in their opinion that the Taoiseach

Time To Plan For The Worst...

'FOR God's sake, Sarge, say something, even if it's only goodbye!" The old joke about the platoon of soldiers about to march over a cliff carries relevance for a Taoiseach and a Government out of step with everybody else and refusing to acknowledge the proximity of the cliff. For much of the last week, the story of Ireland's trouble has jostled for prominence in the headlines with massive world events. It has preoccupied leaders at international conferences. It has filled the pages of the 'Financial Times' and attracted the attention of the media in Europe and the United States. It has provoked comment, almost unanimously gloomy, from leading economists. But "Sarge" has had nothing to say beyond a reassurance that we have enough money in the kitty to last us until the middle of next year. After that, who knows? At any rate, Sarge thinks the cliff is a long way off. Brian Cowen is reportedly "furious" about the reports that we may seek to

Homeowners Face Paying €80-a-month Property Tax...

HOMEOWNERS face paying an €80-a-month property tax under a plan drawn up by the country's top economic think-tank. The charge would be based on the value of homes, and middle-income earners would end up providing most of the tax generated, the study by the Economic and Social Research Institute says. Homeowners who bought their house and paid stamp duty in recent years would be given a waiver, as they would be regarded as having already paid a property tax. Those on low incomes and people getting social welfare benefits would be exempted from the payment. Even with these exemptions, a property tax could still bring in close to €1bn a year, as the Government draws up plans for a €15bn package of cuts and taxes over the next four years. There are 1.7 million households in the country, but the exemption scheme would mean up to 235,000 householders would not have to pay the tax, the ESRI says. But the study, which sets out how a property tax would work, warns that exempting those with

Ireland Ain't Seen Nothing Yet...

"If you thought the bank bailout was bad, wait until the mortgage defaults hit home." THE BIG PICTURE: Ireland is effectively insolvent – the next crisis will be mass home mortgage default, writes MORGAN KELLY ... SAD NEWS just in from Our Lady of the Eurozone Hospital: After a sudden worsening in her condition, the Irish Patient, formerly known as the Irish Republic, has been moved into intensive care and put on artificial ventilation. While a hospital spokesman, Jean-Claude Trichet, tried to sound upbeat, there is no prospect that the Patient will recover. It will be remembered that, after a lengthy period of poverty following her acrimonious divorce from her English partner, in the 1990s Ireland succeeded in turning her life around, educating herself, and holding down a steady job. Although her increasingly riotous lifestyle over the last decade had raised some concerns, the Irish Patient’s fate was sealed by a botched emergency intervention on September 29th, 2008 followe

Brian's Tax And Grab...

LOW-paid workers will be dragged into the taxation net and middle-income earners also face a wide range of tax hikes in the most draconian Budget in the State's history. Taoiseach Brian Cowen yesterday quelled pressure from within Fianna Fail to call an election and will push ahead with plans to cut €6bn in the 2011 Budget on December 7. After being forced to call a by-election in Donegal South-West, the embattled Coalition is now facing the prospect of its majority being reduced to just two for the crucial Budget votes. But Mr Cowen is adamant the Government will stay the course and see through the €6bn austerity package for next year, consisting of spending cuts of €4.5bn and €1.5bn in increased taxes. The Coalition also expects 45,000 workers to emigrate from the country in 2011, leading to just a small rise in unemployment as those who can't get jobs will opt to leave the country instead. For those in the workforce, the prospect of a wide range of tax hikes is on the cards,

Another 50,000 Building Jobs To Go...

Another 50,000 building jobs set to go next year... Another 52,000 construction and related jobs are expected to be lost next year, according to an unpublished report. The cost of the job losses will add an additional €1 billion to exchequer spending in unemployment payments, benefits and training, according to a report prepared for the environment department. The report, by DMK Economic Consultants, predicts that the numbers employed both directly and indirectly in construction would reach a floor of 126,000 by the end of next year. At one time, there were 380,000 people employed in construction and related jobs. Up to the end of June this year, there were 127,000 people working in construction and a further 58,000 employed in construction-related work such as civil engineering, architecture, legal conveyancing and specific manufacturing for the sector. This does not include an estimated 8,000 apprentices doing training. The report estimates that as may as 7,700 apprentices and traine

Curse of The Economist...

The Economist is at us again: in its survey of global house prices out at the weekend, it said that only four of the 20 markets surveyed had posted year-on-year price declines and only Ireland’s property catastrophe had worsened. We came bottom of its league, with a 17 per cent fall in prices between the third quarters of 2009 and 2010. In another global house price survey, this one from estate agency Knight Frank comparing the second quarters of both years, we only came second from the bottom – Estonia recorded price drops of 31.5 per cent, nearly double the fall here, again, given as 17 per cent. Cold comfort, of course, when the story told by both surveys is that property markets across the world are getting back on their feet, with Asia’s price rises leading the way – and we’re not at the party. If you’re emigrating to Australia and thinking of buying, read The Economist’s words of warning. Aussie house prices rose by 18.4 per cent in the period surveyed and The Economist calls it

Legacy Of Ghost Estates...

A POETICALLY-titled report, A Haunted Landscape: Housing and Ghost Estates in Post-Celtic Tiger Ireland , estimated last July that there were more than 620 such estates where over half of all the houses were either empty or unfinished – exceeding 300,000 units in all. Now we are being told by the Department of the Environment, following an on-the-ground survey of over 2,800 developments, that the phenomenon is not quite so widespread. Of the total of 180,000 houses or apartments involved, 77,000 were found to be occupied, 33,000 were completed and vacant, 10,000 were at varying stages of construction and the remaining 60,000 were not started at all; further building plans had obviously been abandoned as the property bubble burst. The photograph in yesterday’s editions of two children playing on a “street” in Co Cork with everything unfinished around them shows that there are are real victims of this “legacy issue”. The degraded environment of such estates, with their unpaved footpaths

Ghost Estate's €870m Tax Breaks...

Ghost estate builders got €870m tax breaks... But no cash to finish 'eyesores' as 33,000 houses stand empty: DEVELOPERS got almost €870m in tax breaks to build thousands of houses that no one wants , the Irish Independent has learned. And the Government yesterday admitted there was no money to finish off the 2,800 ghost estates in which 33,000 houses and apartments are lying idle. Local communities will be stuck with these eyesores for years as bulldozing them has also been ruled out. And planners will not face any sanction for their role in fuelling the property bubble. The first official audit of the number of unsold and half-built houses and apartments in so-called ghost estates published by the Department of the Environment yesterday showed the full extent of the problem. The report found: * There are 2,846 ghost estates containing 33,225 empty units ready for sale. * Cork has the most unsold homes, 3,427. Limerick City has the least, 119. * Planning permission

Serious Mistakes Made...

Mansergh concedes that serious mistakes were made... THE IRISH public is determined to remain in control of its own affairs despite the scale of the financial crisis, Minister of State Martin Mansergh told leading economists in London last night. “There is a determination to try and maintain control as far as we can in our affairs, and to avoid – and to do whatever we have to do to avoid – outside dictation either on expenditure or taxation.” Speaking to Politeia, an economic forum in London, Mr Mansergh readily conceded that serious mistakes had been made by governments over the last decades. In the late 1990s, public spending controls were eased up, with the number of public employees rising by 50 per cent and the salaries for those in higher ranks by 80 to 100 per cent, sometimes even more. “I think there is an argument for saying that Irish society, or certainly the upper echelons – whether involved in the public or private sector – did become somewhat greedy when the good times we

Ghost Estates Four Times Estimate...

Number of 'ghost' estates four times initial estimate... THE number of 'ghost' housing estates stands at 2,700 -- four times higher than thought, according to the first official government estimate. This means that taxpayers face an even bigger bill for the mess caused by developers and the banks. Ghost estates are defined as those that contain unfinished, unoccupied, or partially occupied house and apartment blocks. The first government-ordered audit of how many such estates exist has now revealed the extent of the problem. A previous estimate, earlier this year, calculated there were 621. Many of the estates in the new total of 2,700 are located in the midlands and north-west, the Irish Independent has learnt. The report outlines six categories of properties,ranging from those which are 'turn key''-- finished but unoccupied-- to estates where only preliminary groundwork has taken place. Other estates are partially occupied, but have half-built houses and a

Doomsday...

Doomsday media coverage and the matter of the truth... A bit like the rain in a Frank McCourt novel, the bad news on the economy never stops pouring down on us. That picture of Ireland now seems firmly set in the opinion of the international media. Once the sick patient of Europe dutifully taking its medicine to help it get better, we are now, as the doctors might say, experiencing an adverse clinical event that is threatening our very life. The cure might be killing us. Last week's extremely disappointing news that the economy had contracted again by 1.2% in the second quarter added yet another symptom to the many more that erupted within just a few days: international bond market rates at record levels upping the price of government debt and therefore necessitating an even worse budget; long-term unemployment up; emigration up; 110,000 households in arrears on electricity and gas bills. The list of damaging symptoms was endless. All last week, international commentary from the Wa

Drunken Premier Playing Into Hands Of EU...

A drunken Premier playing right into the hands of the EU Can one bank bring down a country? At the end of August, a reporter from the New York Times asked that question about Ireland's bust Anglo Irish Bank. The Dublin government denied such a thing were possible. Yet now it is looking very much like it might happen. Anglo's debts are so vast that the government may have to pay 34billion euros to bail-out the bank. Bail-outs for other Irish banks will bring the total to 50billion euros. Party animal: Irish Premier Brian Cowen and admirers at a Fianna Fail function Brian Lenihan, the finance minister, was forced to admit yesterday that these bail-out costs will push the national deficit this year to 32 per cent of GDP. Such figures would be shocking in Britain. Even at its worst, Britain's deficit is heading for little more than 10 per cent. However in Ireland, where the entire working population numbers just 1.8million and unemployment is at 14 per cent, figures like that a

Tiger In A Tailspin...

Ireland's Problems Have Euro Zone Worried... The PIIGS are not out of the woods yet. Ireland's ongoing economic woes have financial markets concerned that the country might need an EU bailout. A new round of austerity measures could trigger a downward spiral. Sean FitzPatrick, 62, couldn't help smirking when he appeared before the judges of the High Court in Dublin last Wednesday. FitzPatrick, who is Ireland's most famous banker, had already declared personal bankruptcy last summer, after accumulating €145 million ($195 million) in debt. His monthly income is currently €188, FitzPatrick's legal counsel informed the court. But he will only be a poor man if his wife Catriona leaves him. The six houses and the rights to a retirement fund which is worth millions belong in part to her, and cannot simply be seized by creditors. FitzPatrick owes the largest sum to the Anglo Irish Bank, where he served as chairman until late 2008. "The bank granted him and his relative

Ireland Faces Tough Road To Recovery...

Ireland faces a tough road to economic recovery... LIMERICK , Ireland – Hard times. You took out a second mortgage to fix up the house. Then in 2008, Ireland's housing bubble burst. A year later, Dell Inc. closed its Limerick laptop factory, putting you and 2,000 others out of work. You're 58 and unemployed, and your home is financially underwater. Gerry Hinchy is fighting with Dell and his bank for better terms. But he knows the manufacturing work and the property boom are gone. "It won't come back. They can turn the screw in China for 50 cents an hour," he said. "What's done is done. The question now is how to get out of it." To overcome a decade of debt-driven growth, Ireland is gutting its way through one of the world's toughest austerity efforts. Economists here say Americans eventually will face the same belt-tightening to reduce the debts of government, businesses and consumers. The Irish say they could not wait. As one of 16 countries usi

Emigration Hits 20 Year Record...

THE number of Irish people being forced to emigrate to find work has hit a 20-year high, with the numbers edging towards the 30,000 level. The level of overall emigration, including non-Irish nationals, has remained constant at 65,300. But the number of Irish nationals leaving these shores including families was 27,700 in April, up 42pc on last year. Migration from other countries to Ireland has also slumped. The number of migrants dropped significantly to 30,800 in April from 57,300 last year, according to new figures from the Central Statistics Office (CSO). The figures also show the highest level of net outward migration to 34,500 in April since 1989. Economists said yesterday that our youngest and brightest are being forced out of the country to find jobs because of slump in the economy. "The bulk of this is forced emigration," said Friends First economist Jim Power. "What we're doing is what we did very well in the 1980s and it is unambiguously negative. "T

Mortgage Holders In Distress

The banks' forbearance to customers in arrears may be storing up future trouble as household debt spirals... The banking system is desperately trying to hold back an ever-rising tide of overdue mortgages as high unemployment and increasing mortgage rates play havoc with family finances. Lenders have been ordered by the Financial Regulator to help people stay in their homes, even when they've stopped paying their loans, but how much forbearance can our weak financial system take before buckling? More than one in 10 borrowers is now in distress, according to the latest quarterly figures on residential mortgage arrears from the Financial Regulator and unofficial estimates by the Irish Banking Federation (IBF). Around 36,000 households are now more than 90 days in arrears, with two-thirds of that total more than six months behind on their mortgages, according to the regulator. The IBF is preparing new data on restructured mortgages – loans switched to easier repayment arrangements

€1 Galway House Sparks Avalanche...

€1 Galway house sparks avalanche of interest... THE TRUCK driver who has put his house on the market and is willing to consider any offers over €1 says he has been inundated with inquiries, some from as far as Australia and Nigeria. Galway man Michael Dempsey said he had to take the day off work to deal with the avalanche of interest – although more from the media than buyers at this stage. But several dozen people have declared an interest in making a bid for the property at Gatestown, between Moylough and Mountbellew in north Co Galway. “It seems to have struck a chord with people but it is too early yet to see if a deal can be struck,” Mr Dempsey said. He put a four-bedroom bungalow on the market “willing to consider any offers of over €1” after spending two years trying to sell the house, worth €320,000 at the height of the boom. “It’s a liability to me at this stage. I have to insure it, maintain it, pay €200 each year in property tax to the county council and spend other money on

Knock Knock? Who's There...

Knock knock? Who's there . . . in the market . . . Ireland’s property market is stuck in a vacuum, with the only stimulus coming from the old reliable triggers: birth, marriage, death and, increasingly, debt ARE WE THERE YET? The trip to the bottom of the property market is taking an awful long time. It’s three years since the jitters took hold with talk of empty apartments and stalled sales, two years since the global economy took a nosedive courtesy of Lehman Bros. Savvier individuals would say that they saw the end coming far earlier, as far back as autumn 2006 when auction rooms suddenly emptied. and demand for investment properties waned. Either way it’s been a long grinding descent to the point we’re at now, with house prices halved and empty homes littered across the landscape. Some estate agents insist that the bottom is now and that people can “smell the value out there”. If only the banks would start lending again, they say. However, would-be buyers have plenty of reason