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Time To Pay For Excesses Of Past...

We will have to pay for excesses of the past... RECENT economic reports have a hint of desperation about them as they struggle to suggest the battered economy will revive in two years time. The bit between 2009 and 2010 is being glossed over, as the economy is expected to plunge to its worst recession ever in modern history . If it’s true, the 9-10% fall in output this year is from a high base and even if growth reverts back to 2005 levels then that would be no bad thing. That was the year before we built a record 96,000 houses and employment doubled towards 2 million over a 10-year period. That’s all positive, but the reality check still has to kick in. One report from West Cork suggests house prices in some areas are in desperate trouble. One source has reported that 10 houses built in 2007, achieved prices of €400,000, some bought with €390,000 mortgages. But as the market tanked, unsold houses were bought for €180,000, leaving many in negative equity territory. It is also a fact th...

Negative Equity Increases...

Home debt-trap hits 340,000... Massive rise in borrowers caught in negative equity AS many as 340,000 people could now be in negative equity following a sharp fall in house prices. New research which reveals up to a third of a million people owe more on their mortgage than their homes are worth is considerably higher than recent estimates that found 250,000 homeowners were in negative equity. Being in negative equity means you cannot switch mortgages for a better deal, fund a move to a larger home to start a family, or move house to take a job somewhere else. Economist with property website Daft.ie Ronan Lyons has calculated that 340,000 people, or one in five homes, are now in this predicament. "That's 340,000 homes where if the homeowners have to sell, they will not be able to pay the bank back solely through the money they get from selling the house," Mr Lyons said on his blog site (ronanlyons.wordpress.com). The findings are broadly in line with a survey by Amarach ...

Economic No-Brainer Country Going Bankrupt ...

Economist says 15pc chance of country going bankrupt... CUTTING the Irish minimum wage is an "economic no-brainer" while social welfare rates must also be tackled to kick the economy back into gear, a senior official at the Economist Intelligence Unit said yesterday. Economist Dan O'Brien also gave the Irish state a 15pc change of "going bankrupt" in the next year, a bleak outlook that comes just a month after ratings agency Fitch gave the country a 1.5pc chance of defaulting over the next decade. Mr O'Brien was addressing the AGM lunch of small business lobby group ISME, which had just voted in Kildare accountant Eilis Quinlan as their next chairman. Asked by Friends First economist Jim Power for his views on the lowering of the minimum wage, Mr O'Brien described the move as an "open and shut case from an economic point of view". Ireland's minimum wage, at €8.65, is the second highest in Europe. "You only have to look at the competit...

House Price Collapse Good For Economy...

Collapse in house prices will be good for economy... Many people in recent weeks have tried to explain what is happening to the economy. How can we visualise why credit has dried up? How do we rationalise the fact that we went from a situation of so much money we didn't know what to do with it, to a situation of no cash at all? Where did it all go? One interesting way to look at this, and this column has used it before, is to think of events in the natural world. Think of the aerial photos of the Serengeti at the beginning of the annual rainy season. What was a parched arid climate where nothing grows suddenly become florid, verdant and full of life. Animals, flowers insects flourish and the place is abuzz. We see migrating wildebeest, crocs and birds and then, at the height of the season, the whole plain is crackling with energy, fuelled by that most precious of commodities, water. Then as the seasons change, the water begins to evaporate. Life disappears from the edges of the pla...

Exposing The Lie Of The Land...

Take a long look at the chart below. Digest it. Maybe look again if you have to. This happened in the most sophisticated economy in the world. This is what happened to the price of development land in Japan. Prices roared upwards and then collapsed, ending up below where they started at the beginning at the boom. This is likely to happen here; development land is likely to settle back to 1996 prices. We haven’t seen the half of it yet . When we hear some property lads talking about green shoots, this chart should be enough to tell them to snap out of it. But we can’t seem to snap out of it. We are still caught in the trap. We seem to believe that the price of houses and land will miraculously rise again some time soon. This will not happen. It can’t and shouldn’t. In fact, houses prices are likely to fall another 50 per cent from here before we see anything like the bottom. International comparisons bear out these forecasts. Until now, many Irish people have clung to the myth of what ...

House Prices Plunge Even Further...

Almost €200m was wiped off the value of houses in price reductions in less than a month by sellers desperate to offload their properties, the Sunday Independent can reveal. In what is being described as the introduction of "a major dose of reality" to the housing market, price drops of over 50 per cent have been reported on many houses, particularly in the Dublin area. Price reductions before last month had slowed, with sellers refusing to budge below their expectations, but the lack of activity has forced them to massively reduce their original prices in order to sell, industry figures have said. IrishPropertyWatch.com, which charts property price falls and increases, in a report on the period March 15 to the April 20, showed that over 3,700 properties dropped their prices, while only a small number raised theirs. The largest drop in price was over €1m, from €2.9m to €1.9m, while the average price drop was €41,989. It's report showed that over 80 per cent of houses had ...

Recessionsaurus...

Your essential guide to language in the 21st century economy... It's happened to us all. One minute you're in your element, waxing lyrical about the big match over a bag of peanuts down the pub, the next the talk turns to the markets and you're left clutching at more straws than an octopus playing Kerplunk. Worry no more. Like a white knight with a big dictionary under his arm, The Times today charges to the rescue with the Recessionsaurus — Robert Cole's guide to modern vocab. We've listed and defined some of the most common phrases to have cropped up over the past few months, and we hope you find them useful. But this is an interactive service — we want your input, too. Use the Have your Say box below to query any economic tongue twisters and terminology to have come your way recently. We'll monitor your feedback and add new entries, quicker than you can say quantitative easing. Well, almost... Administration One step from bankrupt...