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Showing posts from 2009

Ghosts Of Debt And Jobs Will Haunt Economy...

OPINION : By 2015, Iceland will almost certainly be a lot better off than Ireland because it dealt decisively with its banks ... WHILE THINGS are hard to predict, the future, especially the situation of the Irish economy, is so stark that even an economist can make some predictions that stand a chance of being right. Two ghosts of Christmas will haunt Ireland in 2015: jobs and debt. For 20 years, the Irish economy experienced extraordinary growth. Unfortunately, this growth came from two separate booms that merged imperceptibly into each other. First we had real growth in the 1990s, driven by rising competitiveness and exports. However, after 2000 competitiveness collapsed, and growth came to be driven by a lending bubble without equal in the euro zone. As Michael Hennigan of Finfacts (www.finfacts.ie) has pointed out, of the half million jobs created in the last decade, only 4,000 were in exporting firms; and fewer people now work in IDA-supported companies than in 2000. The Irish eco...

Going, Gone: Property Plummets...

Just eight houses sold under the hammer in Dublin this year, as the number of houses offered at auction collapsed by 80 per cent. In total,19 properties were offered for sale in the capital’s auction room; in 2006, at the height of the boom, more than 1,000 properties were auctioned in the city. Estate agents Bennetts held most of this year’s auctions, putting five properties under the hammer. Lisney handled four auctions, as did Sherry FitzGerald, while Colliers Jackson-Stops auctioned three. Douglas Newman Good, Harper O’Grady and Property Team each held one auction. Simon Ensor, director of auctions at Sherry FitzGerald, described the number of auctions this year as unprecedented. ‘‘In the past, a quiet year for us would have been one where we [Sherry FitzGerald] held 25 auctions and where overall, there were around 100 across the entire market," he said. ‘‘I’ve been selling houses by auction since the mid-1980s, and I don’t ever remember a year where there were so few sales....

Repossessions Occur Daily...

Repossessions occur almost on daily basis, says regulator... Level of arrears doubles in 15 months THE homes of 331 people have been repossessed this year -- almost one a day -- and a further 26,271 mortgage holders are three months or longer behind in their mortgage repayments. This means the percentage of households falling into arrears has more than doubled in the last 15 months, new figures from the Financial Regulator show. But mortgage experts accused the regulator last night of down-playing the extent of the mortgage crisis. They said the figures take no account of the thousands of homeowners who have got permission from their lenders for a payment holiday or are now only paying the interest on their mortgage in a bid to lower the repayments. The figures show that the State's 22 mortgage lenders held a total of 331 repossessed homes by the end of September. In the three months from June to September alone 110 properties were repossessed. Included in the 331 repossessed prope...

Times Uncertain...

The times, they are uncertain... The past year was characterised by harsh economic truths and a grinding dilution of hope, especially for people on the margins of society and those who saw their lifestyles – and livelihoods – dissolve IT WAS the year of uncertainty. Of waiting, and waiting, and dreading. The dominos of society collapsed one by one – the see-no-evil bishops and priests, the senior gardaí who colluded with them, the invincible developers, swaggering bankers, procrastinating judges, grasping politicians, language itself – and trust fell off a cliff. More than two out of three people declared they trusted no-one, in a monthly poll on the mood of the nation. Loss of trust was a theme of the year, says Carolyn Odgers of Chemistry Advertising, which commissioned the poll from Amárach Research. It was confirmed by The Irish Times /Behaviour Attitudes social survey last month . Only three in 100 will be bothered to look more closely at Government and in the event of another rec...

Scarey Shadowland Ideas For Ghost Estates...

Architects offer ideas for country's 'ghost estates'... IT IS a future where empty housing estates are used as crematoriums and there is a scrappage scheme for ugly one-off country homes. As the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) prepares to begin operations in the new year, a group of architects have put forward suggestions for what can be done with the unfinished constructions and 'ghost estates', legacies of the economic downturn. From an unfinished hotel which has been handed over to the community, to a 'two-for-one' scheme for unsold houses, the 'Shadowland' exhibition which opened in Dublin yesterday floats some realistic and some more improbable ideas. Among the suggestions are a 'City of Dead', where abandoned or unsold houses are used as crematoriums and chapels. FKL architects, which organised the exhibitions, have also suggested a scrappage scheme for houses. One-off homes would be knocked down and the residents rehoused in to...

Budget 2010...

Budget 2010: Brian's bitter pill... FINANCE Minister Brian Lenihan yesterday chose to avoid new income taxes by instead slashing social welfare payments and public sector pay. But he insisted "the worst is over" after delivering his third Budget in 14 months. However, there is plenty more pain to come as Mr Lenihan last night revealed plans to achieve €2bn more in cutbacks in 2011 through water charges, a property tax and public sector reforms. The Government is also planning a radical overhaul of the PRSI, income and health levy system, which will also widen the tax base. Mr Lenihan cut €4bn from spending in Budget 2010 and introduced carbon taxes and stealth charges in the health sector. But his Budget was branded as lacking fairness as it hit those on low incomes in the public sector and those dependent on social welfare. The salaries of Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his ministers were reduced by 20pc and 15pc respectively -- but this included the previous 10pc voluntary c...

Repossession Of Homes

Pressure on State to stop repossession of homes... There is a "substantial" number of new mortgage holders who should never have been approved for the amount of money they borrowed and repossession orders should not be granted to their lenders, proposals to Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and the Oireachtas committee have urged. A group, whose aim is finding a way to assist thousands of families who face the "very real threat" of losing their homes because of mortgage arrears, said the terms of loans should be amended to what the borrower can afford. The Prevention of Family Home Repossession Group has made submissions to Mr Lenihan and the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance and Public Service on a variety of measures to deal with the problem. They have also warned that many families will find themselves in a poverty trap with a deteriorating economy, spiralling unemployment and the prospect of interest rate rises . "This has the potential to lead to catastro...

House Prices Drop More...

House prices drop 1.8% in October... Dublin: House prices fell the most in six months in October, extending a real-estate slump that has pushed prices to their lowest in six years. Prices dropped 1.8% from the previous month, the most since April, Dublin-based Irish Life & Permanent Plc said in a monthly report today. From a year earlier, prices dropped 13.9%. House prices have fallen in every month since March 2007 and are now 27% below their peak in the early part of that year, according to the Irish Life/ESRI index. The average price of a house in Ireland was €228,347, the lowest since October 2003. Report - Irish Examiner.

The Lost Decade: Prices At 2001 Level...

The lost decade: prices now back to 2001 level... The property industry felt it could walk on water during the first half of the noughties, but after 2006, it all began to go terribly wrong. SO HOW did it all go so wrong in the property market? For a while there, mid-noughties, people in the property business felt they could walk on water. Now, with almost a decade of growth wiped off the value of Irish homes, both buyers and sellers are asking, how low can we go? Are we still in freefall, bumping along the bottom, or seeing the beginnings of recovery? Nobody wants to make the call. Surprisingly, they were asking the same questions back in 2001. “Now that the boom is over, everyone wants to know what is going to happen to property prices. Is now a good time to buy, will values drop even more in the spring? Should sellers wait?” this supplement asked in December 2001. After six consecutive years of growth since the mid-1990s, and the euphoria of the millennium, 2001 proved a tough year ...

Where Do We Go From Here?

IRELAND TODAY: IT’S JUST over a year since Wall Street and its Irish cheerleaders chanted “We are where we are” while Main Street reeled. Since then, every wrong-headed, populist Government economic policy, every catastrophic failure of the Financial Regulator, every rampantly greedy, short-termist instinct of the financial institutions and builders/developers has been exposed... A year ago, commentators were predicting something akin to the end of capitalism as we know it. Citizens were demanding humility, apologies, accountability, a purpose of amendment, radical reform, fewer tax breaks, an end to the bonus culture and a fairer share-out of the tax burden. So how is your head now, a year on? Still looking for other heads on plates? There is a lot to rage against. Only this week, headlines announced that banks are being “forced” to pay bonuses. But how long can a people sustain a condition of mass, impotent rage while remaining relatively sane and healthy? A few weeks ago, 1,200 peop...

Celtic Tiger Makeover...

How do you solve a problem like Clongriffin? The bubble burst leaving the new north Dublin suburb in the lurch. Now designers and architects are figuring out what can be done to create a sense of community... SO WHAT do you do with a place that’s merely a fragment of what was planned? Clongriffin, on the north fringe of Dublin, was supposed to have a population of 30,000 to 40,000, with all the communal facilities they would need. But construction ground to a halt when the bubble burst, leaving the area’s residents high and dry. Enter Designing Dublin, a unique initiative by Design 21st Century, founded by Jean Byrne and Jim Dunne, who are both members of the Crafts Council of Ireland with backgrounds in business. Dunne was inspired by an exhibition at the Chicago Museum of Contemporary Art about how design could address current challenges. They brought in Vannesa Ahuactzin, a young American architect who did a year’s programme at the Institute Without Boundaries in Toronto, which spe...

Selfish Strikes By State Workers...

Strikes no answer to crisis... AT A time when social solidarity and a sense of personal responsibility are needed as never before, employees in the most protected sector of the economy have behaved selfishly. A one-day strike by a quarter of a million State workers – and the threat of more to come – has damaged our international reputation and made the task of economic recovery even more difficult. When all the rhetoric and special pleading by trade union leaders is stripped away, what is left is the unattractive face of mé féinism. Public sector workers can argue they are not responsible for the recession and that they have already been forced to pay a pension levy. But their anger at the banking sector; at the Government’s mishandling of the situation and the various regulatory failures that contributed to our current difficulties is shared by workers in the private sector and does not exempt them from the tough fiscal actions that are now required to correct the public finances. Jus...

People Struggling To Keep Roof Over Their Heads...

Over 77,000 now behind on mortgage or rental bills. Figure twice previous estimate... AT LEAST 77,500 households are in arrears on their mortgages and rent payments. This is more than twice previous estimates of the numbers of people struggling to keep a roof over their heads. It is a clear sign that the country is now gripped by a mortgage and rental crisis, experts said. Also, one in five households are struggling to pay credit card bills, credit union loans and overdrafts. Higher-income families are more likely to owe money to credit card companies and to be overdrawn. The major study of incomes and living standards by the Central Statistics Office indicates that thousands of homeowners and those who rent are so deep in debt that many are at risk of losing their homes. The frightening figures underscore the mortgage misery in the country and stress the need for a rescue scheme for heavily indebted families, mortgage experts said. However, a leading economist said last night the arre...

State Should Print Money To Rescue Economy...

State should start printing money to rescue economy... Did you know that our country's housing wealth has shrunk at a rate of €142.8m per day since the peak of the boom in 2007? This is a catastrophic figure because housing wealth was one of the key drivers of spending, and domestic spending is what kept the dole queues so low in the boom years. Without this housing "feel-good factor" we will continue to spend less. And the housing situation is getting more alarming. In January 2007, the total value of all our houses and apartments was €550.64bn and today that figure is €411.69bn. According to the latest report from daft.ie, rents are collapsing back to 1999 levels. Many people believed that, even in the worst case scenario, the housing market would bottom at 2003/4 levels. This now looks optimistic. The more rents fall, the more house prices fall too and this is because the rents are a leading indicator of what is happening to real housing demand. There is such an over...

Boom Buyers Seethe As Prices Now A Third Less...

Boom buyers seethe as units now three for price of one... HOUSEHUNTERS in a busy commuter town can now get a two-bedroom apartment for just €110,000 -- a third of the original asking price. It's a case of 'three for the price of one' at the exclusive Capella Court apartments in Newbridge, Co Kildare. When the gated development first opened in 2007 -- buyers forked out prices starting at €322,000. Attractive But now they will be seething at the prospect that newcomers can buy three apartments for the money they handed over at the height of the boom. Residents at Capella Court who bought in 2007 will be paying three times the amount in monthly mortgage repayments of their new neighbours for apartments of the same size and specifications. The attractive price tag comes as receivers have been appointed to re-launch the apartments. Dwellings are finished inside and lighting, footpaths and landscaping are in place. The two-bedroom apartments are set to attract investors, with ave...

€500k Antidote To Recession...

€500k Christmas lights 'an antidote'... The capital's Christmas lights this year have cost a staggering €500,000, but are being offered as an "antidote to the recession". The launch of the Christmas lights may be one of the most honoured traditions of the festive season, but this year's half-a-million-euro price tag has raised eyebrows. Funds for the lights, which will be launched in the capital next week, have been provided by the Dublin City Business Improvement District (BID) and Bord Gais, in partnership with a number of retailers on Henry Street. Although spending is tight as the country spirals further into recession, and costs are cut everywhere, this seasonal tradition is one that Dubliners will not have to say goodbye to. Richard Guiney, CEO of Dublin City BID said: "Christmas in Dublin is a magical experience. "The enchanting atmosphere is unmissable and is something that people travel from all over the world each year to enjoy and experien...

What Recession??????

Public to ignore recession with festive spending... IRISH shoppers will spend twice as much as their European counterparts on presents, food and socialising this Christmas despite the recession. Households will fork out an average of €1,110 during the festive season – almost double the €600 that will be spent in Europe. This is despite shoppers saying they will spend 30% less on gifts, 6% less on food and 22% less on socialising this Christmas, according to figures compiled by accountancy firm Deloitte. Irish people plan to spend three times more on socialising than those in Germany and Italy this Christmas. An average of €180 per household will be spent at pubs and restaurants, which is the highest spend in Europe. In an attempt to lure shoppers, retailers said they plan to begin their sales earlier than ever this year, according to chief executive of Retail Excellence Ireland (REI) David Fitzsimons. "You’ll find a lot of nervous retailers out there who are keen to convert stock ...

Thousands Seek Mortgage Help...

1,000 a month seek help to pay mortgage... MORE than 1,000 people a month are turning to the Government for help to pay their mortgages. But as many as half of them are being turned down some months. The dramatic rise in the numbers who cannot afford to meet their monthly mortgage repayments has underlined the scale of the crisis affecting a growing number of desperate homeowners. The mortgage interest relief supplement is designed to cover the interest portion of the home loan. Those seeking aid have to show they negotiated to reschedule the mortgage payments with their lender. They also have to be means tested. And both husband and wife must be out of work. The increase in applications comes at a time when mortgage interest rates are at record lows. Expected rises in the next year are likely to push substantially more people to the financial brink. Figures obtained by the Irish Independent reveal that the Government expects to have to spend €60m this year helping homeowners to pay th...

Handing Houses Back To Banks...

Homeowners handing their houses back to the banks... HOMEOWNERS who can no longer afford to pay the mortgage are voluntarily giving up the keys to their property as they see no other way out of the debt , according to a housing charity. Respond warned that many people in negative equity did not think it was worth trying to sell the house to repay the debt as there was no market for it. These people are simply handing their houses back to the banks, the charity said, with some leaving the country and others moving back home with family. Respond spokeswoman Aoife Walsh said figures for repossessions in the courts did not accurately reflect what is happening on the ground. "Many people are feeling hopeless because of the collapse of the housing market. They are simply handing back the keys of their home to their lender as there is no prospect of selling the home to repay the debt," she said. "These cases are rarely reported and we suspect there may be far more ‘voluntary su...

House Price Crash Gets Crashier...

That 40% drop - it's already happened... Economists have predicted that house prices have to fall by at least 40 per cent from their peak of 2006 but house builders say that’s already a reality... NEW HOMES agents have supported a claim by the Irish Housebuilders’ Association (IHBA) that selling prices for newly built houses and apartments have either bottomed out or are close to that stage in the price cycle. Dominic Doheny, chairman of the IHBA, said earlier this week that prices across the country have dropped by an average of over 40 per cent and that the level of unsold stock was between 35,000 and 40,000. He said that there are 9,000 new homes overhanging the Dublin market – a figure well below other estimates which put unsold properties at 15,000. Ken MacDonald of Hooke MacDonald said yesterday that judging by the magnitude of the price cuts and the increased number of enquiries and viewings in recent months, there was room for a guarded optimism that the market had bottomed...

Get A Move On Lads...

For God's sake get a move on... THE message from the OECD is clear. Translated into the vernacular, it is: "For God's sake, get a move on, lads" The secretary general of the helpful international body warned that cuts in public spending should begin immediately. In other words, the idea that a restructuring, spread over three to five years, would solve the crisis in the public finances is misguided. Mr Angel Gurria was probably too diplomatic to say as much in public. Instead, he looked Brian Lenihan in the eye and told him: "The problem is that you may not have time, Mr Minister . . . The markets are zeroing in on countries." The "markets" are loaning this country €2bn a month so that the Government's pay cheques for public and civil servants will not bounce, and so that the 160,000 private sector workers who have been thrown out of work in the past year will at least have some euro to buy food for their families. Yesterday's lowering of I...