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April Fool's Budget...

All set for an April Fool's Budget, but the joke is on us...


IT'S a bit like throwing water into a bucket of sand. No matter how many fistfuls of euros the Government fling into the financial black hole, it just keeps on getting bigger, deeper and darker.

No-one was expecting the Exchequer returns for the first two months of this year to make pleasant reading, but the sheer speed at which the country is sliding further into the red is nothing short of hair-raising.

In the same two months last year, when few people had a clue that the Celtic Tiger had been placed on the endangered species list, the Exchequer posted a Budget deficit of €125m.

What a trifle that is, a mere bagatelle compared to frightful figures unleashed yesterday which revealed that the Budget deficit for the first two months of this year stands at €2bn. The economy is staggering all over the place like a drunken sailor, and nobody seems to know how to straighten it out.

The Exchequer figures were due to be released during Leader's Questions yesterday afternoon, and both Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore were rushing to get a hold of them.

And Enda was on high alert after the Government had added an amendment to a private motion put forward by his party relating to the necessity of a new Budget.

"Part of that Government amendment states, 'notes the Government decision today to announce further necessary measures by the end of this month to ensure the stabilisation and sustainability of the public finances'. What are these measures? What decisions were taken by the Cabinet today?", demanded Enda wearing the wary expression of a man who was smelling a large rat.

The Taoiseach rose to his feet. The forthcoming figures, he informed the tense House, were "disappointing".

No, Taoiseach. Brad Pitt's new film is 'disappointing'. Ronan O'Gara's kicking in Croke Park last weekend was 'disappointing'. A €2bn hole opening up in the public coffers -- a scant nine weeks into the year -- is more akin to adjectives such as catastrophic or calamitous.

"It is clear that tax revenues in 2009 are under pressure," Brian added with breath- taking understatement. He then offered a set of figures. "The end of February returns reveal a figure of €5.759bn as opposed to €7.562bn for the same month last year," he explained grimly.

It was one, slightly circuitous way of breaking the bad news. It sent everyone scurrying for pencils and paper to do their sums.

Understandably, Enda didn't realise that Brian had actually coughed up the horrendous deficit. "I would have expected the Taoiseach to provide the figures to be published in a few minutes time," he said disappointedly.

But Enda moved on, and tried to convey to the Government benches what he felt was at the heart of the problem.

"It is the duty of the Taoiseach to set out the economic landscape for the next three to five years. That landscape is bleak at the moment and, therefore, people have no confidence to invest or to spend. That is what is causing the crisis of confidence in people's personal and business lives. It is the responsibility of the Taoiseach to deal with that," he urged an unimpressed Taoiseach.

Brian tried to make himself more clear. "I have given the figure," he pointed out. "It seems there could be a shortfall in revenues of between €2.5bn and €3bn based on those figures if the profile were to continue for the remainder of the year," he said flatly.

There was silence on all sides of the chamber. No heckling from Fine Gael, no verbal punches thrown by Noel 'Jack' Dempsey in the Government's corner. Everyone realised that this made a new Budget inescapable.

This was all-but confirmed by the Taoiseach minutes later. He had already dropped a hint about "a combination of tax increases and expenditure savings" being put in place.

"We have made the decision that we will take whatever adjustments are necessary to meet the emerging deficit for this year's figures by the end of this month," he announced doggedly. "That is what the Government intends to do and we are indicating that we will make decisions at the end of this month".

So that's it. Twenty-seven more days before axes are taken to pay packets and public spending is slashed. Twenty-seven more days before Brian Lenihan makes like Freddie Kruger.

This most likely won't be a mini-Budget, a snip here and a tweak there. This will probably be a full-on Lenten Budget in which everyone gets a hairshirt for Easter. This is an Emergency Budget in the sense that the Second World War was euphemistically referred to in Ireland as the 'Emergency'

If it was Ash Wednesday last week, then it was Ashen Tuesday yesterday.

Global stock markets were up in a heap again, the tax returns were dreadful, and there is more bad news on the way today with the latest jobless figures due for release.

Just to add another note of grim humour, the Lenten Budget could very well be unveiled on April 1.

It would be nice to think that the Government could then pop up and say 'April Fools y'all! The banks are actually grand, and the hole in the finances is just a vanishing trick!".

Alas, it's all too real. And the joke is on us.




Report by LISE HAND - Irish Independent.

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