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House Prices To Fall Further...

Property: making a move...

With house prices set to fall even further, it's no surprise that most buyers are sitting on the fence. But for those who have no choice but to bite the bullet, think long-term...


All the available data and commentary on the domestic property market suggests the continuing fall in prices still has some way to go, so it's no surprise that the majority of potential buyers are still opting to "sit on the fence".


But the Irish Banking Federation (IBF) recently reported a 9pc rise in new mortgage lending in the second quarter of 2009 when compared with the first three months of the year.

But with new lending still 7pc lower than in the same period last year, the IBF said it was too early to say if the market had turned a corner.

Karl Deeter, of Irish Mortgage Brokers, reports an increase in applications and numbers of loans because of recent price falls.

"We had felt for some time that price drops would come fast once the realisation about the economy became widespread, but instead it took about a year for it to happen," he said.

"Now that prices are dropping, there are more buyers."

While there is still a lot of uncertainty, some buyers are finding the right property and placing well thought out bids.

"Seller reality, however, is lagging behind buyer reality and the supply side is swamped so further price reductions, in particular for apartments, are likely," said Mr Deeter.

The IBF figures also showed that first-time buyers and movers combined now have a record 60pc share of the total market, while the investment end of the market continues to fall off sharply.

"There are funds available as lenders are concentrating on first-time buyers and those trading up," says Michael Dowling of the Irish Mortgage Advisers' Federation.

All of which suggests that more buyers are preparing to take the leap.

"I think the increase in mortgage drawdowns we saw in the second quarter of this year points to some element of that, namely that people have been waiting and are making a move where they see enough of a discount from the peak price," says Ronan Lyons, an economist with property website Daft.ie.

For those who have to move for business or family reasons, some may be reckoning on now being a good time.

"If you're planning to get married, recently married or planning a family, then you don't have the luxury of waiting for much longer to make a move," says Fiona McLaughlin of www.privateseller.ie, which assists people in selling their homes themselves.

Ms McLaughlin says that there has been a 30pc rise in the numbers viewing properties on her website. The prospect of interest rate rises by the ECB is having a stronger impact on buyers' decisions than actual market prices, she says.

"They know that prices are flexible, supply is high and sellers are more open to negotiation than ever before," she says.

"Waiting for guide or actual sale prices to decrease even further will have diminishing returns once interest rates have hit rock bottom."

What is already clear is that the market is no longer pacing itself according to house-buying "seasons".

During the boom times, the month of September would have been regarded by those in the property business as the start of the new season. But not any more, it seems.

Buying

"In my view, the traditional buying season has changed radically in that there is no season any more," says Liz O'Kane of Get-Sorted, a house-hunting service. "Property is for sale for much longer, therefore boards remain in place for longer, with price reductions being the main marketing tool."

So what are the best strategies for those who need to move home?

"Consider renting, but if you definitely want to buy then negotiate well, do a lot of homework, work with an agent you can trust and have mortgage approval before you start," says Mr Deeter.

Ms O'Kane says: "If you need to buy over the next few months, whatever your circumstances, think long-term."

But the issue of owing more on your mortgage than your house is worth may still prove a bridge too far for many potential movers, particularly those who have bought within the past five years.

"It also depends on whether they have equity still in their own house or whether they find themselves in negative equity," says Mr Lyons. "If it's the latter, they'll have to talk to their financial institution about their situation."


Report by John Cradden - Irish Independent.

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