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Irish Fairy Tale Hides Horror Story...

How the great Irish fairy tale hides the true horror story... Gene Kerrigan's new book presents an alternative view of the economic crisis, suggesting that some people are actually benefiting from austerity policies. We've been subjected to the Big Lie. We are not all in this together, as this extract reveals By now, they can recite the fairy tale in their sleep. Politicians, their media fans, tame economists and hired mouthpieces use the fairy tale to explain what happened. Like all stories, the details can be changed from time to time, but the basic fairy tale about the Celtic Bubble, the crash and the recession is pretty consistent. And it goes like this. Once upon a time, the Irish people threw off the shackles of the past that held us back. We began to work hard, to innovate, to find within us the talents we always had but which had been suppressed or neglected for too long. In the bad old days, you see, the Brits held us back, or perhaps the Catholic Church sti...

How Low Can House Prices Go?

Ireland’s property boom was the biggest, and our crash the most violent. In a week that brought news of a further drop in house prices, Economics Editor DAN O’BRIEN explains why the market won’t recover any time soon... ‘THE FUNDAMENTALS of the property market are sound, going forward.” This mantra was repeated constantly during the boom by those who believed that no risks were attached to soaring property prices. If any reminder was needed of how badly wrong this view was, it came this week with new official figures showing yet another fall in residential property prices in August. This, according to statisticians, brought the total decline since the property-price peak, in late 2007, to more than 43 per cent, one of the biggest drops in the world. The latest figures from the auctioneer Sherry FitzGerald, also published this week, are worse still, suggesting that average prices are down by a huge 58 per cent since the bubble burst. The belief that property was a one-way bet b...

Last Chance For Euro...

Eurozone governments in last-chance saloon to save the single currency... All of the metaphors have been used -- from edge-of-a-cliff, meltdowns and hanging threads -- but the real terror confronting the eurozone is that its banks, out of fear that other banks' solvency is threatened by default on sovereign debt, could stop lending to one another. This would bring the credit system to a halt and the ensuing liquidity crisis would, if left unresolved, result in insolvency and default. European economies could languish in deep recession for a decade or more and this is how a euro crisis would play out -- in sets of insolvency, uncertainty and illiquidity. So what exactly happened to the eurozone officials over the past 10 days? First, finance ministers admitted there may need to be a default on sovereign debt. They did not specify for which country or in what form. Instead, they tried to duck out for their summer holidays and said the details would be announced in September. ...

Banks Stop Property Market Recovery...

Banks tell families -- no loans for homes... Mortgage approval plummets by 90% as banks hoard bailout cash A RECOVERY in the property market is being stopped dead in its tracks by the banks, which are turning down at least half of all mortgage applications -- mostly from people who are highly creditworthy. With many experts now convinced that the market has gone below bottom, the difficulty in accessing credit for even high-quality applicants has reached crisis point. Banks are continuing to reject applications for credit and 2011 looks like posting the worst mortgage-origination figures in four decades. On Friday AIB, which is to merge with Educational Building Society, won conditional approval from the European Commission for yet another capital injection -- this time of up to €13.1bn. It is part of more than €19bn that was approved after the latest bank stress tests and comes on top of billions in taxpayers' money that has already been pumped into the banking sector bu...

Dublin Protest...

Dublin protest over EU-IMF bailout... Thousands of people are expected to participate in a protest in Dublin this afternoon against the EU-IMF austerity programme. The protest, organised by the Enough Campaign, is being supported by trade unions, TDs, political organisations and groups seeking to maintain education and health services in their areas. Participants are scheduled to meet at Parnell Square at 2pm. The Enough Campaign said suggestions that the State’s implementation of the EU-IMF austerity programme was going well were badly misplaced. People Before Profit TD Richard Boyd Barrett, an organiser of the march, said he expected a good number of people who were “enraged” by the austerity programme to take part. "It is absolutely mystifying how the EU-IMF delegations 'approval' of the Government’s implementation of austerity in this country is being portrayed by the government and some commentators as a 'good news' story," he said. "We...

Irish Debt Is Junk...

Irish debt cut to 'junk' status as euro zone crisis deepens... Irish debt was cut to “junk” status by credit rating agency Moody’s, last night, hours after the Minister for Finance said that measures to aid Greece proposed by euro zone finance ministers on Monday night would benefit Ireland. Moody’s appeared to contradict the Minister last night saying the measures being contemplated for Greece had increased the chance that Ireland might default on some of its debts if it has to seek another bailout from Europe. The resulting downgrade is expected to lead to a sell-off in Irish bonds when markets open today as many lenders will only hold bonds considered to be investment grade by privately owned rating agencies such as Moody’s. Bloxham analysts said the downgrade would prompt some forced selling by investors who are not allowed to hold non-investment grade securities, and would be dropped from some of the bond indices. “In our view this latest move by Moody’s is cynic...

IMF & EU's €9bn Profit On Irish Bailout...

Noonan spells out high cost of our rescue... THE IMF and EU will make a €9bn profit over the lifetime of the bailout loans to Ireland. Finance Minister Michael Noonan last night revealed for the first time just how much the international agencies will make if the €85bn in loans are drawn down in total. The British government is also entitled to send auditors and accountants here to check the books as part of its bilateral deal to Ireland, the Irish Independent has learned. It is also insisting that if Ireland ever leaves the euro the UK must be repaid in full and in sterling -- and not in any new Irish currency. The developments come as the IMF-EU bailout team arrives back in Dublin today to begin the latest examination on whether the Government is meeting the terms of the €85bn programme of aid. The progress of public sector reform and changes to wage-setting systems for low earners will be discussed in talks with IMF-EU bailout team. And it also appears likely the Gover...

Are Euros Safe If Greeks Default?

Is your money safe in Euros if the Greeks default? A big fat Greek default is on the cards and the Lehman's style spillover might have a dire domino effect on Ireland and the euro. People are worried about Argentina-style hyperinflation making their money worthless or a government smash and grab on their precious savings if everything falls apart. What to do to protect money is the hot topic of the hour. "This is being discussed at the board tables of business, charities, you name it," says Niamh Cahill of Irishdeposits.ie. "The deposit rate of interest has been very much relegated as the most important concern, what's important now is safety." So, if the worst came to the worst, what might happen? "It could be one of two things," says Cahill. "The Government could say 'as of tomorrow we're going to devalue all deposits and loans on the balance sheets of banks in Ireland'. Or else they could say 'we're going to de...

True Cost Of Euro Dream...

Ireland left to count the true cost of euro dream... An exclusionary venture that values banks ahead of ordinary people – this is not what we signed up for. JUST THREE years ago we were being bamboozled into voting for the Lisbon Treaty, the then latest stage in the creation of a wondrous European project that would consolidate peace on the continent and promote yet further wealth creation. It would also give Europe a voice in world affairs corresponding to its financial clout, give greater administrative cohesion to the decision-making processes in the union and incorporate the industries of war (defence industries) into the corporate structure of the union. The Lisbon Treaty had arisen from the refusal of the French and Dutch electorates to approve a draft European constitution. The new treaty was devised to give effect to the purpose of the draft constitution, while avoiding the tiresome ordeal of obtaining electoral approval anywhere, except Ireland. The Irish electorate, a...

The European Debt Crisis...

In Oscar Wilde's Importance of Being Earnest, Lady Bracknell memorably remarks that: "To lose one parent… may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like carelessness." The Euro-zone's need to rescue three of its members (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) with three others (Spain, Belgium and Italy) increasingly eyed with varying degrees of concern smacks of institutionalised incompetence. Executed with Northern European creativity, charm, flexibility and humility and Mediterranean organisation, leadership diligence and appetite for hard work, the European rescue plan – "the grand compact" - is failing. European Debt Crisis returns In little over a year since the announcement of Greece's debt problems, the European debt crisis has ebbed and flowed with markets oscillating between euphoria (resolution) and despair (default or restructuring). The European Union's (EU) "confidence-boosting", short-term "liquidity enhancement...

More Pain With Tax Hike...

More pain for PAYE workers as tax hike looks likely... THE GOVERNMENT is on the brink of breaking its election solemn promise not to raise income tax. The tax rise threat emerged as the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted that it is preparing to introduce a 0.25pc hike in interest rates next month -- which will add almost €400 yearly to the average €250,000 mortgage. The blow to struggling homeowners will be further compounded by a new property tax and water charge set to be introduced in the new year. Finance Minister Michael Noonan told the Dail yesterday: "I am not going to rule out any tax initiative, or any tax increase or any tax reduction." He added that the "fraught" condition of our public finances meant he was not in a position to predict take hikes, including income tax. The minister was also forced to concede that EU states such as France and Germany are looking to take an interest in the national assets of bailed-out states such as Ireland. ...

Ireland Will Default...

We will default, so let's get on with it. But it's not all bad -- a top financier thinks Ireland's glass is half full and our bank debts will be shared... Ireland will default, when it does happen we should not do it alone but with Greece and Portugal; we should consider leaving Europe given how badly they treat us; we need to take a scalpel to our public sector and Ireland will take five to seven years from now to recover. Those are the views of Larry McDonald, former Lehman Brothers vice president turned international best-selling author, who was in Dublin last week speaking at the Irish Funds Industry Association. McDonald was, until September 2008, vice president of distressed debt and convertible securities trading at Lehman Brothers. He was heralded by many colleagues at Lehman for both his early 2006 call on the subprime crisis and the $46m in trading profits realised from it. I sat down with him on Friday afternoon last in the heart of the IFSC to discuss ...

New Bailout Panic...

Scramble to stem panic after new bailout gaffe... Alarm after Varadkar claims State will need further loans. THE Government last night scrambled to allay fears that a second bailout is on the cards, following damaging comments by a cabinet minister. Transport Minister Leo Varadkar sparked alarm and confusion when he said the Government may need to get new loans from the European Union and IMF next year. Ahead of an anticipated backlash from investors this morning, Finance Minister Michael Noonan's officials insisted the Coalition's firm plan was still to return to borrowing on the bond markets in 2012. The Department of Finance stressed there was no change in the Government's plans, as Mr Varadkar's comments were reported around the world. Mr Varadkar was also left backpedalling after he was reported as saying: "I think it's very unlikely we'll be able to go back (to borrowing on the bond markets) next year. I think it might take a bit longer......

EU Profits From Ireland's Crisis...

EU loan is no bailout, it's financial bullying. Should we be taking our case on the EC's extortionate profit margin to the Court of Justice... SOME members of the European Council are exploiting our crisis in order to profit at our expense. If the interest rates on the EU loans are not reduced, the Irish public will suffer unnecessarily while our European partners profit from these loans. Last January, the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism charged Ireland an interest rate of 5.51 per cent for money that it borrowed at 2.59 per cent. A month later, the European Financial Stabilisation Fund charged Ireland an interest rate of 5.9 per cent for money that it borrowed at 2.89 per cent. On this basis, the EFSF earns a profit margin of 3.01 per cent and the EFSM earns a profit margin of 2.93 per cent. These margins are draconian. The majority of the interest that Ireland pays is not used to pay for the EU's borrowing costs. It is excessive profit for the countries...