Daft Property - Irish Property News

ESRI has been getting its forecasts wrong for years... In Irish economic circles, you tend to take much more stick from having been right than having been wrong. Those economists who got it wrong in the boom and believed the hype about the soft landing, such as the ESRI, still manage to grab front-page headlines. In contrast, those who called it right are put under constant scrutiny and are still being dismissed by the establishment as cranks, celebrities or, at best, lucky opportunists. The "insiders" rally round each other even when they are wrong and the "outsiders" are denigrated. In the economics world, for what it's worth, the outsiders' crime -- the crime of being right -- is particularly dangerous precisely because it exposes the limitations of the insiders. This type of insider/outsider prototype is commonplace in Ireland. Yesterday, we saw more of this type of behaviour where the establishment insiders carry on with their forecasts despite th

They presided over the crash -- but no one was ever fired. An "endemic culture of rewarding failure" in Ireland has meant that not one person in the Department of Finance, the Central Bank or the Financial Regulator's office has been sacked for their role in the worst financial and economic crisis in history. While their former political masters in Fianna Fail were slaughtered at the polls in February, it has been confirmed to this newspaper this weekend that not a single official or adviser was laid off for their failure either to adequately prepare for the crash, or for their failure to deal swiftly with it when it happened. "Nobody in the Department of Finance has been fired since January 2008," a spokeswoman told the Sunday Independent. Friends First chief economist Jim Power said that while many of those who were in key positions during the crash have since moved on or retired, their departure has come at a significant cost to the taxpayer. "

Ahern and Cowen handled the Irish economy like 'intoxicated joyriders'... FORMER Taoisigh Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen handled the Irish economy like "intoxicated joyriders" before it collapsed, a leading academic has said. Dr Ed Walsh, the University of Limerick's founding president, also launched a blistering broadside against the public sector as he delivered the annual Michael Collins oration at Beal na mBlath in Co Cork. He described it as "flabby and over-paid" as well as "antiquated and dysfunctional". And Dr Walsh said that the current Government had to reverse a ludicrous situation whereby Ireland had allowed its basic jobseekers' allowance to be greater than the average industrial wage of most EU accession states. "The crisis that is convulsing Europe has its origins in the partisan management of the euro currency from the outset. Sustained low interest rates to facilitate a dominant Germany in the process of reunif

Economist reveals appalling vista of bankrupt and beleaguered Republic... THE EURO ZONE debt crisis will be solved “eventually” as it is to Germany’s benefit to remain in the euro, UCD economist Morgan Kelly has said. Delivering the Hubert Butler Lecture at the Kilkenny Arts Festival on Saturday, Kelly predicted very large European Central Bank loans to Ireland, Spain and Italy. Even if the Republic were to receive favourable terms, “deep problems in Ireland remain”, he added. In an hour-long address, Kelly also predicted that Irish debt will approach €250 billion by 2015, €50 billion more than Coalition estimates, and has said there was “no way we can repay that”. He also warned that the losses in the Irish banks would be much greater than predicted, reaching €100 billion rather than the €60 billion estimated. The academic, who has been praised widely for forecasting the depth of the recession, has recently warned of an impending mortgage default crisis and on Saturday descr

Euro dream threatens to become nightmare... ANALYSIS: LAST WEEKEND the world’s attention was on Washington DC as America’s politicians peered into the abyss of sovereign default. On Sunday they stepped back. This weekend attention is on Rome and Madrid. Politicians in those two capitals are sliding towards the same abyss. But there is a big difference between the US and the Mediterranean countries. In America, that country’s leaders walked voluntarily to the edge of the chasm for political reasons. They were not beaten to that point by the bond market. Political leaders in Italy and Spain are in an altogether more difficult position. They are being propelled towards the precipice because confidence in their economies is draining away. They are clutching desperately for something to halt the slide. But it appears ever less likely that they can save themselves. With each passing week it seems increasingly clear that Europe is coming to a fork in the road: one route leads to deepe

Eurozone governments in last-chance saloon to save the single currency... All of the metaphors have been used -- from edge-of-a-cliff, meltdowns and hanging threads -- but the real terror confronting the eurozone is that its banks, out of fear that other banks' solvency is threatened by default on sovereign debt, could stop lending to one another. This would bring the credit system to a halt and the ensuing liquidity crisis would, if left unresolved, result in insolvency and default. European economies could languish in deep recession for a decade or more and this is how a euro crisis would play out -- in sets of insolvency, uncertainty and illiquidity. So what exactly happened to the eurozone officials over the past 10 days? First, finance ministers admitted there may need to be a default on sovereign debt. They did not specify for which country or in what form. Instead, they tried to duck out for their summer holidays and said the details would be announced in September.

Dublin protest over EU-IMF bailout... Thousands of people are expected to participate in a protest in Dublin this afternoon against the EU-IMF austerity programme. The protest, organised by the Enough Campaign, is being supported by trade unions, TDs, political organisations and groups seeking to maintain education and health services in their areas. Participants are scheduled to meet at Parnell Square at 2pm. The Enough Campaign said suggestions that the State’s implementation of the EU-IMF austerity programme was going well were badly misplaced. People Before Profit TD Richard Boyd Barrett, an organiser of the march, said he expected a good number of people who were “enraged” by the austerity programme to take part. "It is absolutely mystifying how the EU-IMF delegations 'approval' of the Government’s implementation of austerity in this country is being portrayed by the government and some commentators as a 'good news' story," he said. "We

Irish debt cut to 'junk' status as euro zone crisis deepens... Irish debt was cut to “junk” status by credit rating agency Moody’s, last night, hours after the Minister for Finance said that measures to aid Greece proposed by euro zone finance ministers on Monday night would benefit Ireland. Moody’s appeared to contradict the Minister last night saying the measures being contemplated for Greece had increased the chance that Ireland might default on some of its debts if it has to seek another bailout from Europe. The resulting downgrade is expected to lead to a sell-off in Irish bonds when markets open today as many lenders will only hold bonds considered to be investment grade by privately owned rating agencies such as Moody’s. Bloxham analysts said the downgrade would prompt some forced selling by investors who are not allowed to hold non-investment grade securities, and would be dropped from some of the bond indices. “In our view this latest move by Moody’s is cynic

Noonan spells out high cost of our rescue... THE IMF and EU will make a €9bn profit over the lifetime of the bailout loans to Ireland. Finance Minister Michael Noonan last night revealed for the first time just how much the international agencies will make if the €85bn in loans are drawn down in total. The British government is also entitled to send auditors and accountants here to check the books as part of its bilateral deal to Ireland, the Irish Independent has learned. It is also insisting that if Ireland ever leaves the euro the UK must be repaid in full and in sterling -- and not in any new Irish currency. The developments come as the IMF-EU bailout team arrives back in Dublin today to begin the latest examination on whether the Government is meeting the terms of the €85bn programme of aid. The progress of public sector reform and changes to wage-setting systems for low earners will be discussed in talks with IMF-EU bailout team. And it also appears likely the Gover

From €25,000 to €1.45m: another distressed auction... AUCTIONS: There’s interest from around the world in next’s week’s big sale DUBLIN’S Shelbourne Hotel is expected to be packed again next Thursday for the second auction of distressed properties to be offered to the highest bidders by auctioneers Allsop/Space. Most of the 87 residential and commercial properties are being sold by financial institutions and receivers. They include 59 houses and apartments, mainly in Dublin, Cork and Waterford, but also in counties ranging from Laois to Donegal. Apartments already rented have been of particular interest to many people who have checked out the online sales catalogue prepared by the Allsop/Space partnership. The site has already had more than 60,000 hits, a figure that is expected to grow to over 100,000 by next Thursday. Just over 14 per cent of the enquiries have come from Ireland but there has been almost an equal level of hits from interested parties in the UK, USA, France, A

Is your money safe in Euros if the Greeks default? A big fat Greek default is on the cards and the Lehman's style spillover might have a dire domino effect on Ireland and the euro. People are worried about Argentina-style hyperinflation making their money worthless or a government smash and grab on their precious savings if everything falls apart. What to do to protect money is the hot topic of the hour. "This is being discussed at the board tables of business, charities, you name it," says Niamh Cahill of Irishdeposits.ie. "The deposit rate of interest has been very much relegated as the most important concern, what's important now is safety." So, if the worst came to the worst, what might happen? "It could be one of two things," says Cahill. "The Government could say 'as of tomorrow we're going to devalue all deposits and loans on the balance sheets of banks in Ireland'. Or else they could say 'we're going to de

Ireland left to count the true cost of euro dream... An exclusionary venture that values banks ahead of ordinary people – this is not what we signed up for. JUST THREE years ago we were being bamboozled into voting for the Lisbon Treaty, the then latest stage in the creation of a wondrous European project that would consolidate peace on the continent and promote yet further wealth creation. It would also give Europe a voice in world affairs corresponding to its financial clout, give greater administrative cohesion to the decision-making processes in the union and incorporate the industries of war (defence industries) into the corporate structure of the union. The Lisbon Treaty had arisen from the refusal of the French and Dutch electorates to approve a draft European constitution. The new treaty was devised to give effect to the purpose of the draft constitution, while avoiding the tiresome ordeal of obtaining electoral approval anywhere, except Ireland. The Irish electorate, a

Finding new ways to solve the personal debt crisis Many homeowners have trouble making monthly repayments but there are ways to ease the burden... WITH about 86,000 homeowners now struggling to repay their mortgage, and four times more debtors seeking free legal advice than did in 2007, Ireland is in the midst of a personal debt crisis. We need solutions, and we need them quickly. What could they be? Write off mortgages A homeowner who is battling to repay a massive mortgage should be allowed to write off some of their loan, according to Michael Dowling, spokesman for the Independent Mortgage Advisers' Federation. This should make their mortgage more affordable and prevent them from either having to sell their home at a lower price than they paid for it -- or having it repossessed. "We need long-term solutions," said Dowling. "No one should be asked to leave their family home. But to make the debt-forgiveness solution palatable to other homeowners who are

Ireland is now more than 10 billion euro in the red after the latest banking bailouts, latest Exchequer figures reveal. The Department of Finance said the debt crisis would have improved significantly - by almost 700 million euro - if it had not been for massive payments pumped into Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Nationwide in March. More than three billion euro injected into the doomed lenders from the public purse is largely to blame for a deficit jump from just under eight billion euro this time last year to 10.2 billion euro. While income tax has increased - mainly because of the universal social charge - overall taxes were lower than predicted by department officials, the latest figures show. This was mainly down to a shortfall on corporation taxes, which came in 140 million euro less than calculated. There were also lower than expected capital taxes, including stamp duty. The Department of Finance said the shock corporation tax figures could be partly blamed on "timi

Scramble to stem panic after new bailout gaffe... Alarm after Varadkar claims State will need further loans. THE Government last night scrambled to allay fears that a second bailout is on the cards, following damaging comments by a cabinet minister. Transport Minister Leo Varadkar sparked alarm and confusion when he said the Government may need to get new loans from the European Union and IMF next year. Ahead of an anticipated backlash from investors this morning, Finance Minister Michael Noonan's officials insisted the Coalition's firm plan was still to return to borrowing on the bond markets in 2012. The Department of Finance stressed there was no change in the Government's plans, as Mr Varadkar's comments were reported around the world. Mr Varadkar was also left backpedalling after he was reported as saying: "I think it's very unlikely we'll be able to go back (to borrowing on the bond markets) next year. I think it might take a bit longer...

EU loan is no bailout, it's financial bullying. Should we be taking our case on the EC's extortionate profit margin to the Court of Justice... SOME members of the European Council are exploiting our crisis in order to profit at our expense. If the interest rates on the EU loans are not reduced, the Irish public will suffer unnecessarily while our European partners profit from these loans. Last January, the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism charged Ireland an interest rate of 5.51 per cent for money that it borrowed at 2.59 per cent. A month later, the European Financial Stabilisation Fund charged Ireland an interest rate of 5.9 per cent for money that it borrowed at 2.89 per cent. On this basis, the EFSF earns a profit margin of 3.01 per cent and the EFSM earns a profit margin of 2.93 per cent. These margins are draconian. The majority of the interest that Ireland pays is not used to pay for the EU's borrowing costs. It is excessive profit for the countries

ECB-IMF deal is a noose that will strangle economic recovery... OPINION: What the ECB and IMF have forced on Ireland is fundamentally corrupt and doomed to failure. WHAT HAPPENED to the Celtic Tiger? For many years, Ireland’s growth was based on fundamentals: investing in education and infrastructure to make the country an attractive place for investment and a gateway to Europe for companies from the US and Asia. But then, like so much of the rest of the world, Ireland was distracted by the lure of fast bucks and the wizardry of finance. As in much of the rest of the world, false economic doctrines advocating unfettered markets prevailed, claiming the seeming success of the economy as evidence of their verity. Not surprisingly, economic doctrines that helped create the crisis have not served the country well in dealing with its aftermath. With those still in office entering into international lending agreements that benefit the Irish banks and their debt holders but not necessa

They're all away as we face Greek-style crisis Immediate action needed on debt, but Dail won't cut short holidays... THE Government is to leave the political apparatus of the State on holiday throughout September -- even though there is growing concern that the country could face a Greek-style crisis before the end of the year. Widespread bewilderment was aroused in high finance circles last week by the publication of photographs of the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, playing golf the day after Ireland's sovereign debt was downgraded again. In what is seen as an example of ill-judged timing, Mr Cowen played golf in Connemara on Wednesday with other seemingly carefree TDs and senators, who still have four weeks of a two-month summer break to go. But while the Oireachtas is in repose, enjoying a longer than usual break, the financial markets are in overdrive and are now evidently training their sights on Ireland with the apparent intention of again testing the resolve of the EU later