Skip to main content

Property Price To Fall More...

Property prices to fall 45% from 2006 peak...


Property prices in Ireland could fall as much as 45 per cent from levels seen in late 2006, as the economic downturn and increased costs of funding the banks weigh on the market.

According to Fitch Ratings, the average house is curently worth 7.5 times the average income, a ratio that is expected to fall to nearer 5.5 times the average individual income.

"Tax rises, high unemployment, wage deflation and property supply overhang continue to undermine the country's property market," says Alastair Bigley, Head of Irish RMBS at Fitch.

Property prices have fallen 24 per cent to date from a peak in December 2006, Fitch said.

"Despite almost three years of house price declines, prices have yet to reach a sustainable level of affordability," says Douglas Renwick, Associate Director in Fitch's Sovereigns team.

The difficult market will be further pressured by a rise in the cost of funding to financial institutions, driven by a higher than expected cost of the European Union's guarantee of banks' debt issuance compared to the current Irish state guarantee and a rise in inter bank lending rates.

Unemployment rates are also forecast to rise, reaching 12.5 per cent by the end of 2009, and 15 per cent in 2011.

"Fitch expects all lenders to increase their mortgage rates and it seems certain that mortgage affordability will suffer against a backdrop of a generally higher tax burden, increasing unemployment and negative to zero wage inflation," said Michael Greaney, associate director in Fitch's RMBS group. "Fitch therefore expects further house price declines and late stage mortgage arrears to rise."


Report by CIARA O'BRIEN - Irish Times

Popular posts from this blog

More Allsop Fire Sales...

Allsop plans five fire sales a year... THE UK auction house Allsop and its Irish affiliate Space plans to hold up to five distressed property auctions a year following the success of its first auction last Friday when 81 out of 82 lots were sold for a total of €15 million. The next auction is scheduled for July 7th, when 200 lots will be auctioned, including apartments, tenanted shops, farms and houses. According to Space director Stephen McCarthy, his company is being inundated with requests from receivers, banks and individuals who want to sell their property fast. Many of the properties in Friday’s auction were sold by Bank of Scotland Ireland and it’s believe there is plenty more of this stock to sell. These include apartments in the Castleforbes development in the Dublin docklands, as well as units in Dublin 8 and in Castleknock. However, the agency is also considering taking on more agricultural land. One lot, a 55 acre farm in Co Wickow sold particularly well, making €42...

As Featured On Dublin Postcards, Ad's, U2 Video...

I see in the Irish Independent today an item concerning a favourite, Dublin landmark, of mine... "THEY have featured in numerous postcards and a very famous Guinness ad, but perhaps their most important cameo appearance came when they featured in U2s 'Pride (In The Name Of Love)' video. However, Dublin City Council does not believe the Poolbeg chimneys are iconic enough to place on their Record of Protected Structures. Following a request from Cllr Dermot Lacey (Lab) to have the landmark ESB chimneys placed on the protected record, city councillors heard that city planners had conducted a survey, history and full assessment of the chimneys. They concluded from this that while the Poolbeg chimneys were considered to be of a certain level of architectural, social and historical significance, they were not of sufficient value within the meaning of the Planning and Development Act, 2000. Complex The twin red and white chimney stacks measure 680 feet in height and were construc...

Property Ireland - Irish Land Values Go Up Like A Rocket & Fall Like A Stone...

Land values go up like a rocket and fall like a stone... SITE EVALUATION: Why would a developer bid €225,000 an acre in 1999 and €2.8m an acre in 2007? Bill Nowlan explains WHY HAS THE value of development land fallen so precipitously, by over 50 per cent in the past 12 months, when residential and other property values have only fallen by 25 per cent or 30 per cent? There is an old property cliché which says that "land values go up like a rocket and fall like a stone" and this seems to have been bourne out in Ireland over recent years. Why does this happen? To answer this question requires an insight into the way developers prepare their bids for development land and I set out below a glimpse into that process. Let me start by looking at how a developer in normal times estimates his bid for a plot of land with planning permission, which in estate agents' parlance is ready-to-go. The key starting point in a developers equations is the expected sale price of the finished b...